Marquette
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#56
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#55
Pace68.7#215
Improvement-0.7#213

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#38
First Shot+3.2#85
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#26
Layup/Dunks+3.9#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#162
Freethrows+1.7#73
Improvement+0.4#142

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#89
First Shot+2.0#110
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#92
Layups/Dunks+5.1#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#293
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement-1.1#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.4% 4.0% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.1% 39.4% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.9% 36.0% 16.8%
Average Seed 9.6 9.6 10.3
.500 or above 76.1% 81.9% 53.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.3% 50.3% 21.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 1.1%
First Four8.3% 9.3% 4.5%
First Round31.0% 35.0% 15.8%
Second Round13.4% 14.9% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.2% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.4% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 6
Quad 24 - 47 - 11
Quad 34 - 110 - 12
Quad 43 - 014 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 99-57 99%     1 - 0 +22.8 +8.7 +10.6
  Nov 27, 2020 234   Eastern Illinois W 75-50 93%     2 - 0 +18.5 -4.2 +22.1
  Dec 01, 2020 33   Oklahoma St. L 62-70 48%     2 - 1 +2.4 -11.5 +14.6
  Dec 04, 2020 11   Wisconsin W 67-65 32%     3 - 1 +16.8 +9.3 +7.7
  Dec 08, 2020 270   Green Bay W 82-68 95%     4 - 1 +5.3 +5.7 +0.4
  Dec 11, 2020 25   @ UCLA L 60-69 31%     4 - 2 +6.1 -4.2 +9.6
  Dec 14, 2020 12   @ Creighton W 89-84 23%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +22.7 +27.2 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2020 40   Seton Hall L 63-70 51%     5 - 3 1 - 1 +2.7 -3.9 +6.3
  Dec 20, 2020 48   @ Xavier L 88-91 39%     5 - 4 1 - 2 +9.7 +22.8 -13.2
  Dec 23, 2020 6   Villanova L 68-85 28%     5 - 5 1 - 3 -1.1 +3.3 -5.4
  Jan 02, 2021 108   @ Georgetown W 64-60 64%     6 - 5 2 - 3 +10.2 -6.6 +16.7
  Jan 05, 2021 26   Connecticut L 54-65 44%     6 - 6 2 - 4 +0.4 -3.4 +1.9
  Jan 12, 2021 53   Providence W 79-69 55%     7 - 6 3 - 4 +18.6 +14.5 +4.8
  Jan 16, 2021 79   @ St. John's W 73-71 54%     8 - 6 4 - 4 +10.7 +2.6 +8.1
  Jan 23, 2021 109   DePaul W 76-69 79%    
  Jan 27, 2021 53   @ Providence L 71-73 35%    
  Feb 02, 2021 80   Butler W 68-63 70%    
  Feb 06, 2021 12   Creighton L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 14, 2021 40   @ Seton Hall L 72-75 33%    
  Feb 17, 2021 80   @ Butler W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 20, 2021 79   St. John's W 80-75 70%    
  Feb 27, 2021 26   @ Connecticut L 66-71 29%    
  Mar 02, 2021 109   @ DePaul W 74-70 58%    
  Mar 06, 2021 48   Xavier W 73-72 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.9 4.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.0 6.3 1.5 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.8 7.7 10.9 2.5 0.0 22.0 5th
6th 0.5 5.4 9.8 3.7 0.1 19.5 6th
7th 0.2 3.3 7.7 3.7 0.4 15.3 7th
8th 0.3 2.5 5.6 2.9 0.2 11.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.7 10.3 16.9 22.4 21.9 14.3 6.0 1.7 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 27.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-7 4.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.4% 100.0% 54.5% 45.5% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
13-7 1.7% 99.9% 7.0% 92.9% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 6.0% 96.7% 11.0% 85.7% 7.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 96.3%
11-9 14.3% 82.3% 8.9% 73.5% 9.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.1 2.5 80.6%
10-10 21.9% 49.7% 6.2% 43.6% 10.9 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.2 3.5 0.8 11.0 46.4%
9-11 22.4% 17.7% 2.6% 15.1% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 18.4 15.5%
8-12 16.9% 1.7% 1.4% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16.6 0.3%
7-13 10.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12.6 0.1 0.1 10.1
6-14 4.7% 1.6% 1.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 4.6
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.1% 4.7% 30.4% 9.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.9 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.1 6.9 6.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 64.9 31.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 16.6 83.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 99.1 0.9
Lose Out 0.2%