Iowa
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#19
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#96
Pace78.0#27
Improvement-0.7#250

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#4
First Shot+9.0#8
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#80
Layup/Dunks+2.6#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#27
Freethrows+3.3#27
Improvement-1.4#305

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#76
First Shot+5.3#37
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#281
Layups/Dunks+0.1#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#98
Freethrows+1.7#94
Improvement+0.6#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 5.1% 7.3% 2.6%
Top 2 Seed 12.1% 16.6% 6.9%
Top 4 Seed 31.3% 39.4% 22.3%
Top 6 Seed 51.0% 61.0% 39.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.1% 90.6% 76.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.1% 89.3% 74.4%
Average Seed 5.7 5.2 6.3
.500 or above 97.7% 99.2% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 88.0% 79.6%
Conference Champion 15.2% 18.2% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 1.2%
First Four2.9% 2.3% 3.5%
First Round82.7% 89.4% 75.3%
Second Round59.6% 67.1% 51.3%
Sweet Sixteen31.3% 37.0% 24.9%
Elite Eight15.6% 19.2% 11.6%
Final Four7.3% 9.2% 5.1%
Championship Game3.3% 4.2% 2.2%
National Champion1.5% 2.0% 0.9%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 33 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 209   Longwood W 106-73 95%     1 - 0 +27.9 +24.7 +1.0
  Nov 12, 2021 191   UMKC W 89-57 95%     2 - 0 +27.7 +10.3 +16.2
  Nov 16, 2021 336   NC Central W 86-69 99%     3 - 0 +2.5 +6.5 -4.2
  Nov 18, 2021 334   Alabama St. W 108-82 99%     4 - 0 +11.7 +25.4 -15.0
  Nov 22, 2021 294   Western Michigan W 109-61 98%     5 - 0 +37.6 +17.4 +15.2
  Nov 26, 2021 269   Portland St. W 85-51 97%     6 - 0 +25.0 +3.1 +19.4
  Nov 29, 2021 39   @ Virginia W 66-65 53%    
  Dec 03, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 77-85 23%    
  Dec 06, 2021 33   Illinois W 85-79 70%    
  Dec 09, 2021 61   @ Iowa St. W 80-76 64%    
  Dec 18, 2021 47   Utah St. W 82-77 67%    
  Dec 21, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 93-66 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 190   Western Illinois W 93-74 96%    
  Jan 03, 2022 53   Maryland W 81-72 78%    
  Jan 06, 2022 31   @ Wisconsin L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 13, 2022 30   Indiana W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 16, 2022 82   @ Minnesota W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 19, 2022 98   @ Rutgers W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 22, 2022 68   Penn St. W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 27, 2022 2   Purdue L 80-82 43%    
  Jan 31, 2022 68   @ Penn St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 03, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 06, 2022 82   Minnesota W 84-73 83%    
  Feb 10, 2022 53   @ Maryland W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 13, 2022 109   Nebraska W 89-76 88%    
  Feb 17, 2022 16   Michigan W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 22, 2022 21   Michigan St. W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 25, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 86-79 73%    
  Feb 28, 2022 42   Northwestern W 83-76 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 16   @ Michigan L 75-78 38%    
  Mar 06, 2022 33   @ Illinois L 81-82 49%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.3 4.0 2.1 0.7 0.2 15.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 4.2 5.6 3.1 0.6 0.1 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 5.0 5.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.6 4.5 1.7 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.6 3.7 4.5 1.7 0.2 10.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 3.8 1.8 0.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.9 0.3 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.8 0.4 5.4 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.6 4.5 6.4 8.7 11.1 13.0 12.9 12.4 10.7 7.7 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 97.2% 2.1    1.8 0.2
17-3 87.0% 4.0    2.8 1.2 0.1
16-4 55.4% 4.3    2.3 1.6 0.4
15-5 27.9% 3.0    1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1
14-6 7.5% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 8.9 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 0.1 0.0
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.6% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.7% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.8 1.0 2.3 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.7% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 3.7 0.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.4% 99.8% 14.0% 85.8% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.9 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 12.9% 99.5% 11.0% 88.5% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.0 2.9 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 13.0% 96.7% 6.8% 89.9% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.2 3.2 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.4 96.4%
11-9 11.1% 91.0% 4.4% 86.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.0 90.5%
10-10 8.7% 72.5% 3.3% 69.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 71.6%
9-11 6.4% 48.1% 1.4% 46.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 3.3 47.4%
8-12 4.5% 16.4% 1.6% 14.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.8 15.1%
7-13 2.6% 5.4% 1.2% 4.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 4.3%
6-14 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.3%
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 84.1% 11.1% 73.0% 5.7 5.1 7.0 9.1 10.2 10.4 9.3 9.9 8.2 5.9 4.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.9 82.1%