UNLV
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#148
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#115
Pace64.8#286
Improvement-0.6#244

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#173
First Shot+0.8#157
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#235
Layup/Dunks-2.2#248
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#174
Freethrows+1.7#75
Improvement+1.4#55

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#114
First Shot+1.8#113
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#195
Layups/Dunks+2.1#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement-2.0#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 4.0% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.2 11.8 12.6
.500 or above 45.9% 65.3% 39.1%
.500 or above in Conference 42.9% 52.2% 39.6%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.5% 5.3%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round2.2% 3.7% 1.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 25.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 41 - 7
Quad 22 - 52 - 12
Quad 35 - 37 - 15
Quad 48 - 115 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 204   Gardner-Webb W 64-58 73%     1 - 0 +1.0 -12.9 +13.8
  Nov 13, 2021 129   California W 55-52 57%     2 - 0 +2.5 -9.1 +12.0
  Nov 15, 2021 168   North Dakota St. W 64-62 67%     3 - 0 -1.2 -6.0 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2021 16   Michigan L 61-74 11%     3 - 1 +1.8 -0.5 +1.5
  Nov 21, 2021 58   Wichita St. L 73-74 26%     3 - 2 +7.3 +6.5 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2021 5   UCLA L 51-73 11%     3 - 3 -7.3 -8.6 -1.9
  Dec 01, 2021 94   @ SMU L 66-73 26%    
  Dec 04, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 61-72 15%    
  Dec 08, 2021 176   Seattle W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 11, 2021 258   Hartford W 73-63 82%    
  Dec 15, 2021 331   Nebraska Omaha W 75-60 92%    
  Dec 22, 2021 142   San Diego W 68-66 60%    
  Jan 01, 2022 50   San Diego St. L 59-64 33%    
  Jan 05, 2022 289   @ San Jose St. W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 63-59 63%    
  Jan 11, 2022 230   New Mexico W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 14, 2022 121   Fresno St. W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 18, 2022 50   @ San Diego St. L 56-67 17%    
  Jan 22, 2022 289   San Jose St. W 75-63 84%    
  Jan 28, 2022 41   @ Colorado St. L 66-78 14%    
  Feb 01, 2022 88   Nevada L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 47   @ Utah St. L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 08, 2022 256   Air Force W 66-56 80%    
  Feb 11, 2022 67   @ Boise St. L 59-68 21%    
  Feb 16, 2022 121   @ Fresno St. L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 41   Colorado St. L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 22, 2022 88   @ Nevada L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 67   Boise St. L 62-65 41%    
  Mar 02, 2022 91   Wyoming L 68-69 45%    
  Mar 05, 2022 230   @ New Mexico W 74-72 56%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.9 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.6 3rd
4th 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.1 2.0 0.2 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 4.3 6.4 2.7 0.2 14.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.3 7.3 3.1 0.3 17.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 6.1 6.3 2.7 0.3 17.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 4.5 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.0 8.1 11.5 13.6 15.0 13.6 10.9 8.2 5.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 71.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 53.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1
13-5 14.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.6% 42.2% 18.8% 23.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 28.8%
14-4 1.4% 17.4% 12.5% 4.9% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 5.6%
13-5 2.6% 12.5% 9.8% 2.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 2.9%
12-6 5.4% 5.5% 5.2% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 0.4%
11-7 8.2% 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9 0.1%
10-8 10.9% 2.5% 2.4% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.1%
9-9 13.6% 2.1% 2.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 13.3
8-10 15.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9
7-11 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 8.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.1
4-14 5.0% 5.0
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.3% 1.9% 0.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 97.7 0.4%