Nevada
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#88
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#145
Pace73.4#82
Improvement+2.3#31

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#54
First Shot+4.4#52
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#131
Layup/Dunks+1.2#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#109
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#137
First Shot+1.1#138
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#188
Layups/Dunks+0.5#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#246
Freethrows+2.6#42
Improvement+2.3#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 13.0% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 5.1% 2.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 12.1
.500 or above 73.2% 75.9% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.8% 73.2% 60.9%
Conference Champion 8.3% 8.8% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 1.9%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 1.6%
First Round11.5% 12.0% 7.8%
Second Round3.7% 4.0% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 55 - 10
Quad 37 - 311 - 13
Quad 46 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 237   Eastern Washington W 91-76 88%     1 - 0 +8.2 +5.8 +1.0
  Nov 13, 2021 142   San Diego L 68-75 75%     1 - 1 -8.0 -2.0 -6.2
  Nov 16, 2021 77   @ Santa Clara L 74-96 36%     1 - 2 -12.3 -3.0 -7.2
  Nov 18, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 70-73 28%     1 - 3 +9.1 +6.1 +3.0
  Nov 22, 2021 59   South Dakota St. L 75-102 43%     1 - 4 -19.2 -8.5 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2021 117   George Mason W 88-69 60%     2 - 4 +22.4 +12.4 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2021 131   Washington W 81-62 63%     3 - 4 +21.5 +6.6 +13.9
  Nov 30, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 82-69 89%    
  Dec 04, 2021 115   @ North Texas L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 07, 2021 263   @ Texas Arlington W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 18, 2021 108   Loyola Marymount W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 21, 2021 126   Grand Canyon W 73-67 73%    
  Dec 29, 2021 289   @ San Jose St. W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 01, 2022 230   New Mexico W 87-75 87%    
  Jan 04, 2022 91   Wyoming W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 50   @ San Diego St. L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 12, 2022 67   Boise St. W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 15, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 21, 2022 121   Fresno St. W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 25, 2022 41   @ Colorado St. L 76-83 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 47   Utah St. L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 01, 2022 148   @ UNLV W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 04, 2022 121   @ Fresno St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2022 41   Colorado St. L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 11, 2022 47   @ Utah St. L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 16, 2022 289   San Jose St. W 85-69 92%    
  Feb 22, 2022 148   UNLV W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 91   @ Wyoming L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 01, 2022 67   @ Boise St. L 68-72 35%    
  Mar 05, 2022 50   San Diego St. L 68-69 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.3 2.5 4.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.0 2.6 0.3 12.6 3rd
4th 0.4 3.6 6.3 2.6 0.2 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.6 3.5 0.3 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.6 3.5 0.3 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.4 2.3 0.3 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.3 1.7 0.2 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.1 8.0 11.0 13.0 14.4 13.7 11.6 8.6 5.7 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 96.7% 1.2    1.0 0.1
15-3 80.5% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.0
14-4 46.9% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 15.0% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 92.9% 33.3% 59.5% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.3%
16-2 1.2% 81.0% 32.2% 48.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 72.0%
15-3 3.2% 59.7% 28.0% 31.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 44.1%
14-4 5.7% 39.9% 17.9% 22.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.4 26.9%
13-5 8.6% 20.9% 12.8% 8.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 6.8 9.3%
12-6 11.6% 16.0% 12.8% 3.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.7 3.7%
11-7 13.7% 9.0% 8.2% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 12.5 0.8%
10-8 14.4% 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.5 0.1%
9-9 13.0% 4.5% 4.5% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 12.4
8-10 11.0% 2.4% 2.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
7-11 8.0% 1.6% 1.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8
6-12 5.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 5.0
5-13 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 8.2% 4.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.3 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 87.5 4.7%