Arizona
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#6
Expected Predictive Rating+21.0#3
Pace77.2#35
Improvement-0.9#264

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#15
First Shot+4.1#62
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#9
Layup/Dunks+6.4#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
Freethrows+2.0#64
Improvement-0.3#217

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#3
First Shot+10.6#4
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#263
Layups/Dunks+3.7#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#19
Freethrows-0.3#206
Improvement-0.6#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.6% 5.7% 1.7%
#1 Seed 21.9% 22.0% 5.2%
Top 2 Seed 41.4% 41.5% 10.3%
Top 4 Seed 69.0% 69.3% 32.8%
Top 6 Seed 84.9% 85.1% 53.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.8% 97.9% 89.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.8% 96.9% 87.8%
Average Seed 3.6 3.6 6.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 98.8% 96.6%
Conference Champion 43.7% 43.9% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 1.7%
First Round97.4% 97.5% 87.9%
Second Round83.1% 83.2% 58.6%
Sweet Sixteen55.5% 55.7% 27.6%
Elite Eight32.6% 32.7% 19.0%
Final Four18.1% 18.2% 6.9%
Championship Game9.7% 9.7% 1.7%
National Champion4.8% 4.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 4
Quad 27 - 114 - 5
Quad 38 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 316   Northern Arizona W 81-52 99%     1 - 0 +17.3 +0.6 +16.6
  Nov 12, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 104-50 99%     2 - 0 +44.3 +11.4 +26.2
  Nov 16, 2021 168   North Dakota St. W 97-45 96%     3 - 0 +48.8 +21.4 +26.4
  Nov 19, 2021 58   Wichita St. W 82-78 OT 81%     4 - 0 +12.3 -0.5 +12.0
  Nov 21, 2021 16   Michigan W 80-62 60%     5 - 0 +32.8 +14.1 +18.6
  Nov 27, 2021 284   Sacramento St. W 85-58 99%    
  Dec 02, 2021 131   Washington W 84-66 95%    
  Dec 05, 2021 128   @ Oregon St. W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 08, 2021 91   Wyoming W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 11, 2021 33   @ Illinois W 78-75 59%    
  Dec 15, 2021 179   Northern Colorado W 86-65 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 215   California Baptist W 88-65 98%    
  Dec 22, 2021 23   @ Tennessee W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 30, 2021 5   @ UCLA L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 02, 2022 14   @ USC L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 08, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 13, 2022 75   Colorado W 79-65 89%    
  Jan 15, 2022 51   Utah W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 20, 2022 97   @ Stanford W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 23, 2022 129   @ California W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 96   Arizona St. W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 5   UCLA W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 14   USC W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 10, 2022 48   @ Washington St. W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 131   @ Washington W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 17, 2022 128   Oregon St. W 79-61 94%    
  Feb 19, 2022 56   Oregon W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 24, 2022 51   @ Utah W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 75   @ Colorado W 76-68 75%    
  Mar 03, 2022 97   Stanford W 81-66 91%    
  Mar 05, 2022 129   California W 77-59 94%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.3 11.6 12.5 8.0 2.7 43.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.7 7.7 8.9 4.7 1.0 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.1 4.1 1.3 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.9 4.6 7.7 10.9 14.3 16.6 16.5 13.5 8.0 2.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
19-1 100.0% 8.0    7.8 0.3
18-2 92.8% 12.5    10.4 2.1 0.1
17-3 70.4% 11.6    7.4 3.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 38.0% 6.3    2.9 2.8 0.6 0.0
15-5 15.7% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.7% 43.7 31.8 10.1 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.7% 100.0% 64.7% 35.3% 1.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 8.0% 100.0% 54.0% 46.0% 1.3 5.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 13.5% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 1.7 6.8 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 16.5% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 2.2 4.8 6.2 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.6% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 2.9 1.9 4.6 4.8 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.3% 99.9% 26.4% 73.5% 4.1 0.3 1.2 3.8 4.0 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.9%
14-6 10.9% 99.4% 20.0% 79.4% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 7.7% 98.3% 14.7% 83.7% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
12-8 4.6% 93.5% 13.0% 80.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 92.5%
11-9 2.9% 83.9% 10.5% 73.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 82.0%
10-10 1.3% 71.0% 5.3% 65.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 69.4%
9-11 0.7% 45.7% 4.3% 41.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 43.3%
8-12 0.3% 23.3% 6.7% 16.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 17.9%
7-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.8% 32.2% 65.6% 3.6 21.9 19.5 15.4 12.3 8.9 7.0 4.1 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.4 2.2 96.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 89.2 10.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4