Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#7
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#160
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.0% 4.1% 0.2%
#1 Seed 15.2% 15.6% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 28.7% 29.4% 4.0%
Top 4 Seed 48.7% 49.7% 13.7%
Top 6 Seed 62.8% 63.9% 24.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.7% 84.7% 50.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.4% 81.5% 46.4%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 6.6
.500 or above 95.3% 95.9% 74.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 90.4% 68.4%
Conference Champion 27.8% 28.4% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four2.4% 2.4% 4.5%
First Round82.7% 83.7% 47.5%
Second Round67.4% 68.5% 30.4%
Sweet Sixteen42.9% 43.8% 12.0%
Elite Eight25.2% 25.8% 5.5%
Final Four14.1% 14.4% 2.1%
Championship Game7.7% 7.9% 1.1%
National Champion4.2% 4.3% 0.3%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 5
Quad 26 - 111 - 7
Quad 36 - 017 - 7
Quad 45 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 160   Jacksonville W 77-57 97%    
  Nov 11, 2022 345   South Carolina Upstate W 92-58 99.9%   
  Nov 15, 2022 6   Kansas L 76-77 49%    
  Nov 18, 2022 153   Delaware W 84-64 96%    
  Nov 21, 2022 250   Bellarmine W 83-58 98%    
  Nov 24, 2022 204   Oregon St. W 85-66 95%    
  Nov 30, 2022 36   Ohio St. W 78-69 76%    
  Dec 03, 2022 86   Boston College W 79-65 87%    
  Dec 06, 2022 29   Iowa W 83-78 66%    
  Dec 10, 2022 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 92-50 100.0%   
  Dec 20, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest W 82-76 69%    
  Dec 31, 2022 42   Florida St. W 80-70 78%    
  Jan 04, 2023 69   @ North Carolina St. W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 07, 2023 86   @ Boston College W 76-68 73%    
  Jan 11, 2023 109   Pittsburgh W 78-62 90%    
  Jan 14, 2023 65   @ Clemson W 76-70 67%    
  Jan 21, 2023 32   Miami (FL) W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 23, 2023 34   @ Virginia Tech W 71-68 58%    
  Jan 28, 2023 97   @ Georgia Tech W 78-69 75%    
  Jan 31, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 85-73 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 2   North Carolina W 80-78 55%    
  Feb 06, 2023 32   @ Miami (FL) W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 20   @ Virginia W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 14, 2023 40   Notre Dame W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 18, 2023 52   @ Syracuse W 80-75 64%    
  Feb 20, 2023 73   Louisville W 79-67 84%    
  Feb 25, 2023 34   Virginia Tech W 74-65 75%    
  Feb 28, 2023 69   North Carolina St. W 82-70 83%    
  Mar 04, 2023 2   @ North Carolina L 77-81 37%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 7.0 7.4 5.3 2.2 27.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.2 5.9 3.4 0.9 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.8 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.8 5.0 6.4 8.4 9.6 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.6 8.3 5.4 2.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
19-1 99.6% 5.3    5.0 0.4
18-2 89.1% 7.4    5.9 1.5 0.0
17-3 65.8% 7.0    4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 34.8% 4.0    1.6 1.8 0.5 0.1
15-5 13.7% 1.6    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.8% 27.8 19.6 6.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.2% 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% 1.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 5.4% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.3 3.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.3% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 1.6 4.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.6% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.2 3.2 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.4% 99.8% 20.1% 79.7% 3.0 1.3 3.2 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 11.6% 99.7% 16.5% 83.2% 4.1 0.3 1.3 2.9 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 10.9% 98.3% 13.9% 84.4% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.0%
13-7 9.6% 95.0% 11.1% 83.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 94.4%
12-8 8.4% 83.8% 9.3% 74.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 82.1%
11-9 6.4% 66.6% 7.4% 59.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.1 63.9%
10-10 5.0% 42.3% 5.9% 36.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 38.6%
9-11 3.8% 18.7% 5.2% 13.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.3%
8-12 2.5% 7.2% 4.3% 2.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.0%
7-13 1.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-14 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 83.7% 16.9% 66.8% 4.4 15.2 13.5 10.9 9.1 7.6 6.4 5.9 4.9 3.7 3.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.3 80.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.1 89.9 9.9 0.2