Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#192
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#130
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#219
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.5 14.0
.500 or above 31.4% 42.0% 13.6%
.500 or above in Conference 15.6% 20.7% 7.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 36.3% 28.6% 49.1%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round1.8% 2.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 52 - 9
Quad 33 - 55 - 15
Quad 47 - 212 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 198   Mercer W 71-68 62%    
  Nov 12, 2022 310   Presbyterian W 72-61 84%    
  Nov 16, 2022 328   Hampton W 80-67 87%    
  Nov 21, 2022 161   Indiana St. L 72-73 46%    
  Nov 26, 2022 186   @ Old Dominion L 65-68 39%    
  Nov 29, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 85-64 95%    
  Dec 02, 2022 256   Campbell W 68-61 72%    
  Dec 06, 2022 179   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 11, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 83-69 87%    
  Dec 17, 2022 87   South Carolina L 69-77 27%    
  Dec 21, 2022 255   High Point W 73-66 71%    
  Dec 28, 2022 93   Temple L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 31, 2022 94   @ Wichita St. L 65-75 21%    
  Jan 04, 2023 92   Central Florida L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 07, 2023 35   @ Memphis L 65-81 10%    
  Jan 11, 2023 53   @ Cincinnati L 65-79 14%    
  Jan 15, 2023 142   South Florida W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 18, 2023 93   @ Temple L 64-74 22%    
  Jan 24, 2023 136   Tulsa W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 29, 2023 94   Wichita St. L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 01, 2023 142   @ South Florida L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 95   SMU L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 11, 2023 82   @ Tulane L 68-79 19%    
  Feb 15, 2023 53   Cincinnati L 68-76 27%    
  Feb 19, 2023 95   @ SMU L 67-77 22%    
  Feb 21, 2023 136   @ Tulsa L 67-73 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 5   Houston L 58-74 11%    
  Mar 01, 2023 82   Tulane L 71-76 35%    
  Mar 05, 2023 92   @ Central Florida L 66-76 22%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 14.1 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 5.8 6.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 3.2 7.0 8.1 5.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 26.8 11th
Total 3.2 7.2 10.2 12.0 12.9 11.9 10.5 9.2 7.2 5.6 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 72.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 41.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 21.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.1% 83.1% 14.2% 68.9% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.3%
15-3 0.3% 67.9% 11.1% 56.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 63.9%
14-4 0.5% 51.5% 12.7% 38.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 44.5%
13-5 0.9% 26.7% 8.8% 17.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 19.7%
12-6 1.7% 13.3% 5.6% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 8.2%
11-7 2.7% 5.6% 4.6% 1.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.1%
10-8 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.5%
9-9 5.6% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.0%
8-10 7.2% 2.1% 2.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1
7-11 9.2% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
6-12 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
5-13 11.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
4-14 12.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.8
3-15 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
2-16 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
1-17 7.2% 7.2
0-18 3.2% 3.2
Total 100% 2.0% 1.3% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 98.0 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%