IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.4	#160
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	57.5	#361
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.0	#215

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.4	#133

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	2.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.3%	32.0%	12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	5.3%	0.3%
Average Seed	13.5	11.4	13.6

.500 or above	66.2%	93.7%	65.4%
.500 or above in Conference	79.2%	95.1%	78.7%
Conference Champion	17.1%	40.6%	16.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.5%	0.1%	1.5%

First Four	1.3%	1.7%	1.3%
First Round	12.7%	31.3%	12.1%
Second Round	1.8%	7.9%	1.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	2.8%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	1.0%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Duke (Away) - 2.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 3	14 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	7	@ Duke	L	57-77	3%
Nov 23, 2022	256	@ Campbell	W	60-58	58%
Nov 30, 2022	60	@ UAB	L	61-73	16%
Dec 07, 2022	75	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	57-68	18%
Dec 10, 2022	179	@ UNC Wilmington	L	62-64	42%
Dec 17, 2022	335	Charleston Southern	W	73-58	88%
Dec 20, 2022	259	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	66-64	58%
Dec 27, 2022	40	@ Notre Dame	L	57-71	13%
Dec 31, 2022	203	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	68-69	46%
Jan 02, 2023	209	Jacksonville St.	W	65-60	66%
Jan 05, 2023	292	@ Stetson	W	65-60	66%
Jan 07, 2023	225	Lipscomb	W	71-65	69%
Jan 12, 2023	242	@ Kennesaw St.	W	65-64	52%
Jan 14, 2023	209	@ Jacksonville St.	L	62-63	47%
Jan 19, 2023	100	Liberty	L	61-63	43%
Jan 21, 2023	321	Queens	W	72-59	85%
Jan 26, 2023	309	@ North Alabama	W	67-61	69%
Jan 28, 2023	334	@ Central Arkansas	W	74-65	75%
Feb 02, 2023	243	North Florida	W	69-62	70%
Feb 04, 2023	243	@ North Florida	W	66-65	53%
Feb 09, 2023	292	Stetson	W	68-57	81%
Feb 11, 2023	203	Florida Gulf Coast	W	71-66	65%
Feb 16, 2023	254	@ Austin Peay	W	62-60	56%
Feb 18, 2023	225	@ Lipscomb	W	68-67	50%
Feb 22, 2023	250	Bellarmine	W	64-57	72%
Feb 24, 2023	219	Eastern Kentucky	W	72-66	67%
Projected Record						14 - 12	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.7	2.5	4.5	4.7	3.4	1.3		17.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.2	3.8	5.2	3.6	1.1	0.1			15.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.1	4.1	4.8	1.9	0.3	0.0				12.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	3.4	4.1	1.5	0.2	0.0					10.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.9	4.2	1.3	0.1	0.0						9.1	5th
6th									0.3	2.1	3.7	1.6	0.1	0.0							7.8	6th
7th								0.1	1.2	3.3	1.8	0.2									6.6	7th
8th							0.1	0.8	2.6	2.0	0.3										5.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.5	1.9	1.8	0.4	0.0										4.7	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.3	1.8	0.4	0.0											3.8	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	0.9	1.3	0.5	0.0												3.0	11th
12th			0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.1													2.3	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0													1.6	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0															0.7	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.5	2.5	3.7	5.2	6.4	8.4	9.6	10.6	11.0	10.9	9.8	8.4	5.8	3.5	1.3			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.3		1.3
17-1	97.5%	3.4		3.1	0.4
16-2	81.2%	4.7		3.3	1.3	0.1
15-3	53.5%	4.5		2.3	1.8	0.4	0.0
14-4	25.3%	2.5		0.8	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	6.5%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	17.1%	17.1		10.8	4.8	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.3%		62.5%	52.8%	9.6%	10.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5		20.4%
17-1	3.5%		47.0%	42.9%	4.1%	11.9							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		1.9		7.1%
16-2	5.8%		34.0%	32.9%	1.2%	12.6										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0	3.8		1.7%
15-3	8.4%		26.2%	26.2%		13.2											0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	6.2
14-4	9.8%		19.4%	19.3%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.0	7.9		0.0%
13-5	10.9%		14.2%	14.2%		14.2													0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1	9.4
12-6	11.0%		10.8%	10.8%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	9.8
11-7	10.6%		8.3%	8.3%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	9.7
10-8	9.6%		5.6%	5.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	9.0
9-9	8.4%		4.1%	4.1%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	8.0
8-10	6.4%		2.8%	2.8%		16.0																	0.2	6.2
7-11	5.2%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.1	5.1
6-12	3.7%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
5-13	2.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
4-14	1.5%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
3-15	0.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		13.3%	13.0%	0.3%	13.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	2.2	2.9	2.7	2.3	1.8	86.7		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	2.6		71.4		28.6
Lose Out	0.0%