Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#121
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.4#108
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 2.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 5.7% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 32.1% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 17.2% 2.9%
Average Seed 11.2 9.5 11.7
.500 or above 66.1% 90.8% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 85.7% 61.8%
Conference Champion 10.5% 22.6% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 1.0% 5.0%
First Four2.1% 4.9% 1.8%
First Round12.3% 29.3% 10.4%
Second Round3.7% 12.3% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 4.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 1.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 47 - 11
Quad 48 - 216 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 61-75 10%    
  Nov 17, 2022 158   @ Louisiana W 67-66 50%    
  Nov 21, 2022 259   Louisiana Monroe W 79-67 84%    
  Nov 23, 2022 341   @ Alabama A&M W 73-60 86%    
  Nov 25, 2022 172   @ Samford W 77-76 53%    
  Dec 02, 2022 279   Southern W 79-66 86%    
  Dec 10, 2022 62   @ Wyoming L 67-76 24%    
  Dec 14, 2022 166   Stephen F. Austin W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 17, 2022 148   @ UTEP L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 29, 2022 249   Texas San Antonio W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 31, 2022 164   @ Charlotte W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 05, 2023 206   @ Rice W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 148   UTEP W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 11, 2023 79   @ North Texas L 58-65 29%    
  Jan 14, 2023 60   UAB L 73-76 42%    
  Jan 19, 2023 107   Western Kentucky W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 21, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 26, 2023 60   @ UAB L 70-79 25%    
  Jan 28, 2023 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 02, 2023 206   Rice W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 09, 2023 224   @ Florida International W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-74 42%    
  Feb 16, 2023 79   North Texas L 61-62 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 164   Charlotte W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 23, 2023 107   @ Western Kentucky L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 25, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 70-72 45%    
  Mar 02, 2023 224   Florida International W 76-67 77%    
  Mar 04, 2023 125   Florida Atlantic W 74-71 60%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.3 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 3.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.2 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 7.7 8.7 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 95.0% 2.1    1.8 0.3
17-3 74.7% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.1
16-4 48.9% 2.5    1.4 0.9 0.2
15-5 20.9% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 6.9 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 97.3% 51.1% 46.2% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4%
19-1 1.0% 88.8% 41.4% 47.4% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.9%
18-2 2.2% 73.4% 36.0% 37.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 58.4%
17-3 3.5% 54.4% 27.4% 27.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 37.2%
16-4 5.2% 39.1% 24.0% 15.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 19.9%
15-5 6.6% 25.6% 19.2% 6.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.9 8.0%
14-6 8.0% 15.4% 13.4% 2.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.8 2.4%
13-7 9.0% 11.2% 10.7% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.6%
12-8 9.6% 9.2% 9.1% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.7 0.1%
11-9 9.5% 6.8% 6.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.8
10-10 9.4% 4.7% 4.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.0
9-11 8.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.4
8-12 7.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-13 6.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
6-14 4.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.8
5-15 3.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.3% 9.5% 3.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 86.7 4.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 48.3 23.0 17.2 5.7 5.7