Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#45
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#128
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.1% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 5.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 11.2% 13.2% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 21.4% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.3% 54.5% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.9% 45.3% 16.4%
Average Seed 7.5 7.3 9.4
.500 or above 86.5% 90.7% 66.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 87.4% 68.4%
Conference Champion 21.2% 23.7% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 2.4%
First Four5.8% 6.1% 4.2%
First Round46.4% 51.4% 22.0%
Second Round27.3% 30.9% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen12.1% 13.9% 3.2%
Elite Eight5.4% 6.3% 1.3%
Final Four2.3% 2.7% 0.4%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 82.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 37 - 213 - 9
Quad 47 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 114   Murray St. W 76-66 83%    
  Nov 12, 2022 313   Evansville W 79-56 98%    
  Nov 15, 2022 35   Memphis W 76-74 56%    
  Nov 19, 2022 48   Maryland W 73-72 50%    
  Nov 27, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 73-79 30%    
  Nov 30, 2022 276   Tennessee St. W 84-64 95%    
  Dec 03, 2022 138   Southern Illinois W 72-60 84%    
  Dec 06, 2022 101   @ Iona W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 10, 2022 77   Boise St. W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 17, 2022 74   Drake W 76-70 67%    
  Dec 21, 2022 326   SIU Edwardsville W 85-61 97%    
  Dec 31, 2022 149   @ Saint Joseph's W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 04, 2023 124   @ Massachusetts W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 07, 2023 103   St. Bonaventure W 75-66 77%    
  Jan 11, 2023 123   George Mason W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 14, 2023 196   @ George Washington W 79-70 76%    
  Jan 18, 2023 54   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 21, 2023 182   La Salle W 79-65 87%    
  Jan 27, 2023 81   @ Davidson W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 31, 2023 202   @ Fordham W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 03, 2023 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-68 67%    
  Feb 07, 2023 112   Rhode Island W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 10, 2023 28   @ Dayton L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 15, 2023 81   Davidson W 75-68 70%    
  Feb 18, 2023 178   Duquesne W 79-65 87%    
  Feb 21, 2023 88   @ Richmond W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 54   Loyola Chicago W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 28, 2023 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 04, 2023 28   Dayton W 68-67 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.8 6.0 4.1 1.5 21.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.8 2.3 0.3 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 1.9 0.2 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.2 0.2 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.3 9.3 11.0 11.7 11.5 11.3 9.6 6.8 4.1 1.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 99.8% 4.1    3.8 0.2
16-2 88.1% 6.0    4.6 1.4 0.1
15-3 60.5% 5.8    3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 26.7% 3.0    0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 13.9 5.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 100.0% 50.5% 49.5% 1.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.1% 99.4% 40.8% 58.6% 2.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
16-2 6.8% 97.5% 32.2% 65.3% 4.6 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.3%
15-3 9.6% 92.2% 25.3% 66.9% 6.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 89.6%
14-4 11.3% 82.7% 21.1% 61.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 78.0%
13-5 11.5% 66.5% 15.8% 50.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.9 60.2%
12-6 11.7% 47.1% 13.6% 33.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 38.8%
11-7 11.0% 28.6% 9.4% 19.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 21.2%
10-8 9.3% 15.4% 8.1% 7.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 8.0%
9-9 7.3% 8.7% 6.2% 2.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7 2.6%
8-10 5.7% 4.7% 4.4% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.4 0.3%
7-11 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9 0.1%
6-12 2.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-13 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 49.3% 15.6% 33.7% 7.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.4 5.7 6.8 6.6 2.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 50.7 39.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.4 68.3 25.7 5.4 0.5