Preseason Rankings
Samford
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#66
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#273
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.5% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 14.6
.500 or above 54.5% 61.4% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 65.0% 38.7%
Conference Champion 10.2% 11.8% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 5.2% 14.7%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
First Round8.7% 9.9% 3.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 49 - 314 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 17, 2022 341   @ Alabama A&M W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 20, 2022 241   Texas Southern W 78-72 70%    
  Nov 23, 2022 212   Valparaiso W 76-71 65%    
  Nov 25, 2022 121   Louisiana Tech L 76-77 47%    
  Nov 30, 2022 91   @ DePaul L 74-83 21%    
  Dec 04, 2022 92   @ Central Florida L 72-81 22%    
  Dec 10, 2022 158   @ Louisiana L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 17, 2022 356   @ South Carolina St. W 88-73 89%    
  Dec 21, 2022 115   @ Belmont L 76-83 29%    
  Dec 28, 2022 198   Mercer W 76-72 63%    
  Dec 31, 2022 265   @ The Citadel W 83-81 58%    
  Jan 04, 2023 272   VMI W 85-76 76%    
  Jan 07, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-72 35%    
  Jan 11, 2023 181   Wofford W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 14, 2023 130   Chattanooga W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 18, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 74-77 42%    
  Jan 21, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 83-75 75%    
  Jan 25, 2023 96   @ Furman L 71-80 24%    
  Jan 28, 2023 181   @ Wofford L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 01, 2023 268   @ Western Carolina W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 04, 2023 189   East Tennessee St. W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 08, 2023 198   @ Mercer L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 11, 2023 265   The Citadel W 86-78 74%    
  Feb 15, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 272   @ VMI W 82-79 58%    
  Feb 22, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 96   Furman L 74-77 40%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.2 10.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.9 2.8 1.1 0.2 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 4.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.4 10th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.8 7.5 8.5 9.8 10.3 10.1 10.1 8.8 7.4 5.6 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 91.6% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 70.9% 2.8    1.9 0.8 0.1
14-4 42.8% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.5% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 6.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 85.4% 55.1% 30.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.6%
17-1 1.1% 58.8% 46.7% 12.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 22.7%
16-2 2.2% 43.6% 37.2% 6.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 10.3%
15-3 3.9% 30.3% 28.4% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 2.7%
14-4 5.6% 21.6% 21.2% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.5%
13-5 7.4% 16.4% 16.4% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.2 0.1%
12-6 8.8% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 7.8 0.0%
11-7 10.1% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.2 0.0%
10-8 10.1% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.4
9-9 10.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.8
8-10 9.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.5
7-11 8.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.3
6-12 7.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.4
5-13 5.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.7
4-14 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 9.3% 8.8% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 90.7 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.1 20.0 66.7 6.7 6.7
Lose Out 0.0%