Preseason Rankings
South Dakota
Summit League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#135
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.5#257
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#232
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.7% 39.5% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 2.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.5 12.2 13.8
.500 or above 84.2% 97.6% 82.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 98.6% 93.2%
Conference Champion 30.4% 49.5% 27.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.5%
First Round24.1% 39.1% 21.9%
Second Round3.6% 9.0% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 2.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 414 - 318 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 41   @ Wisconsin L 64-76 13%    
  Nov 09, 2022 225   Lipscomb W 80-72 77%    
  Nov 17, 2022 64   @ Mississippi St. L 65-75 20%    
  Nov 22, 2022 304   LIU Brooklyn W 83-72 82%    
  Nov 26, 2022 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 03, 2022 55   BYU L 70-77 26%    
  Dec 06, 2022 231   @ Air Force W 67-65 57%    
  Dec 10, 2022 143   UC Irvine W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 14, 2022 184   Coastal Carolina W 75-69 67%    
  Dec 19, 2022 289   @ UMKC W 74-67 71%    
  Dec 21, 2022 122   @ Oral Roberts L 78-82 36%    
  Dec 29, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 83-59 98%    
  Dec 31, 2022 288   Western Illinois W 83-70 85%    
  Jan 05, 2023 322   @ North Dakota W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 216   @ North Dakota St. W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 14, 2023 134   South Dakota St. W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 19, 2023 346   Denver W 81-63 93%    
  Jan 21, 2023 307   Nebraska Omaha W 84-70 86%    
  Jan 26, 2023 288   @ Western Illinois W 80-73 71%    
  Jan 28, 2023 357   @ St. Thomas W 80-62 93%    
  Feb 02, 2023 216   North Dakota St. W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 322   North Dakota W 81-66 88%    
  Feb 11, 2023 134   @ South Dakota St. L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 16, 2023 307   @ Nebraska Omaha W 81-73 73%    
  Feb 18, 2023 346   @ Denver W 78-66 83%    
  Feb 23, 2023 122   Oral Roberts W 81-79 55%    
  Feb 25, 2023 289   UMKC W 77-64 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.0 9.5 7.4 3.1 30.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.5 8.4 6.6 1.8 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.8 6.0 6.2 2.9 0.3 18.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.5 6.5 8.9 11.1 13.1 14.1 13.8 11.3 7.4 3.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
17-1 100.0% 7.4    6.7 0.7
16-2 84.0% 9.5    6.8 2.6 0.1
15-3 50.4% 7.0    3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 19.9% 2.8    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1
13-5 4.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.4% 30.4 21.1 7.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.1% 73.4% 68.1% 5.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 16.6%
17-1 7.4% 57.5% 55.6% 1.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 4.4%
16-2 11.3% 42.9% 42.3% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 6.5 1.0%
15-3 13.8% 32.9% 32.8% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.2 9.3 0.1%
14-4 14.1% 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 10.5 0.0%
13-5 13.1% 18.2% 18.2% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 10.7
12-6 11.1% 11.9% 11.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 9.8
11-7 8.9% 9.3% 9.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 8.1
10-8 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.1
9-9 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.3
8-10 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.7
7-11 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.7% 24.4% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.0 5.8 5.9 4.2 2.6 75.3 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 96.4% 5.2 9.8 26.4 24.9 20.4 4.8 6.2 3.8