Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#44
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.4#343
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#97
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 4.8% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 10.4% 12.1% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 17.7% 20.3% 4.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.2% 54.2% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.4% 46.4% 17.7%
Average Seed 7.6 7.5 9.2
.500 or above 87.0% 91.0% 66.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 89.2% 72.5%
Conference Champion 13.1% 14.5% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 2.7%
First Four6.8% 7.2% 4.9%
First Round45.7% 50.5% 21.2%
Second Round27.1% 30.5% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen11.7% 13.3% 3.2%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.9% 1.2%
Final Four2.2% 2.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 4
Quad 23 - 25 - 7
Quad 38 - 213 - 9
Quad 46 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 122   Oral Roberts W 77-67 84%    
  Nov 10, 2022 104   Vermont W 68-59 79%    
  Nov 13, 2022 79   North Texas W 59-53 71%    
  Nov 16, 2022 279   Southern W 76-56 96%    
  Nov 19, 2022 141   Hofstra W 75-63 85%    
  Nov 24, 2022 72   Vanderbilt W 66-63 59%    
  Nov 30, 2022 110   New Mexico W 76-66 79%    
  Dec 03, 2022 5   Houston L 57-64 27%    
  Dec 07, 2022 131   Missouri St. W 72-61 82%    
  Dec 10, 2022 23   San Diego St. L 59-62 40%    
  Dec 14, 2022 111   New Mexico St. W 68-58 79%    
  Dec 18, 2022 78   Colorado St. W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 21, 2022 62   Wyoming W 66-64 56%    
  Dec 29, 2022 176   San Diego W 70-56 87%    
  Dec 31, 2022 127   @ Santa Clara W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 07, 2023 154   Portland W 74-61 85%    
  Jan 12, 2023 155   Loyola Marymount W 72-59 85%    
  Jan 14, 2023 83   @ San Francisco W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 19, 2023 194   @ Pepperdine W 73-64 75%    
  Jan 21, 2023 127   Santa Clara W 75-64 81%    
  Jan 28, 2023 55   @ BYU L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 02, 2023 83   San Francisco W 70-63 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 1   Gonzaga L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 09, 2023 155   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-62 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 154   @ Portland W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 16, 2023 176   @ San Diego W 67-59 74%    
  Feb 18, 2023 55   BYU W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 23, 2023 228   Pacific W 74-57 91%    
  Feb 25, 2023 1   @ Gonzaga L 67-80 15%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.5 4.1 1.1 13.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.8 9.7 9.2 3.8 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 7.0 7.4 3.4 0.4 20.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.8 4.2 1.1 0.1 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.7 8.4 10.9 13.2 14.4 13.9 12.2 8.3 4.1 1.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
15-1 100.0% 4.1    3.0 1.0
14-2 53.8% 4.5    2.4 2.0 0.1
13-3 21.4% 2.6    0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0
12-4 5.1% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 7.6 4.8 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 99.8% 48.0% 51.7% 2.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-1 4.1% 98.5% 37.0% 61.5% 3.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.6%
14-2 8.3% 95.7% 28.0% 67.7% 4.9 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 94.0%
13-3 12.2% 87.1% 21.5% 65.6% 7.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 83.6%
12-4 13.9% 72.2% 15.0% 57.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 67.3%
11-5 14.4% 53.7% 11.9% 41.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 47.4%
10-6 13.2% 33.7% 7.9% 25.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 28.0%
9-7 10.9% 18.9% 6.8% 12.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.9 13.0%
8-8 8.4% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5 5.2%
7-9 5.7% 4.1% 3.4% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4 0.7%
6-10 3.8% 2.8% 2.8% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.1%
5-11 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
4-12 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-13 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 49.2% 13.4% 35.9% 7.6 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.1 5.8 7.2 7.3 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 50.8 41.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 69.1 27.9 2.9