Preseason Rankings
Tennessee
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#10
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#162
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.7#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 14.2% 14.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 26.6% 26.7% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 45.6% 45.7% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 59.8% 60.0% 8.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.4% 81.5% 40.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.4% 78.6% 38.4%
Average Seed 4.6 4.6 8.1
.500 or above 93.2% 93.3% 53.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 85.1% 45.9%
Conference Champion 22.6% 22.7% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 9.4%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 3.6%
First Round80.2% 80.4% 39.3%
Second Round64.2% 64.3% 25.3%
Sweet Sixteen40.0% 40.1% 6.0%
Elite Eight22.9% 23.0% 3.9%
Final Four12.4% 12.5% 2.3%
Championship Game6.8% 6.8% 0.7%
National Champion3.5% 3.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 25 - 111 - 7
Quad 34 - 015 - 8
Quad 46 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 305   Tennessee Tech W 88-60 99.7%   
  Nov 13, 2022 59   Colorado W 73-65 75%    
  Nov 16, 2022 203   Florida Gulf Coast W 86-65 97%    
  Nov 23, 2022 80   Butler W 71-61 79%    
  Nov 30, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 89-58 99%    
  Dec 04, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 87-53 99.8%   
  Dec 07, 2022 219   Eastern Kentucky W 87-65 97%    
  Dec 11, 2022 48   Maryland W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 17, 2022 12   @ Arizona L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 21, 2022 254   Austin Peay W 79-55 98%    
  Dec 28, 2022 58   @ Mississippi W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 03, 2023 64   Mississippi St. W 73-62 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 87   @ South Carolina W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 10, 2023 72   Vanderbilt W 76-64 83%    
  Jan 14, 2023 3   Kentucky W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 17, 2023 64   @ Mississippi St. W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 21, 2023 47   @ LSU W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 25, 2023 106   Georgia W 82-67 89%    
  Jan 28, 2023 9   Texas W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 01, 2023 30   @ Florida W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 21   Auburn W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 08, 2023 72   @ Vanderbilt W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 70   Missouri W 75-63 82%    
  Feb 15, 2023 22   Alabama W 80-74 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 70-75 36%    
  Feb 21, 2023 39   @ Texas A&M W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 25, 2023 87   South Carolina W 79-66 85%    
  Feb 28, 2023 11   Arkansas W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 04, 2023 21   @ Auburn L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.9 6.4 4.7 1.7 22.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.2 3.8 1.0 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.3 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.3 1.8 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 3.3 1.5 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.7 3.8 5.3 7.2 8.7 10.2 11.6 12.0 11.5 10.0 7.4 4.8 1.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 99.1% 4.7    4.3 0.4
16-2 86.5% 6.4    4.7 1.6 0.1
15-3 59.1% 5.9    3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-4 26.2% 3.0    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 14.8 6.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.8% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.4% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 1.6 4.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.0% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 2.2 3.1 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 11.5% 99.9% 16.5% 83.3% 3.0 1.5 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 12.0% 99.5% 14.7% 84.8% 4.2 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.9 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-6 11.6% 97.8% 11.2% 86.6% 5.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.5%
11-7 10.2% 92.4% 9.5% 82.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 91.6%
10-8 8.7% 80.1% 7.6% 72.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 78.4%
9-9 7.2% 59.7% 6.6% 53.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 56.9%
8-10 5.3% 30.2% 5.3% 24.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 26.3%
7-11 3.8% 10.8% 3.4% 7.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 7.6%
6-12 2.7% 3.6% 2.5% 1.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.2%
5-13 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.4% 13.8% 67.6% 4.6 14.2 12.5 10.3 8.7 7.5 6.8 6.0 5.2 3.8 3.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 18.6 78.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 90.3 9.7