Texas
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.4#4
Expected Predictive Rating+22.1#4
Pace69.1#169
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#16
First Shot+6.8#30
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#93
Layup/Dunks+4.3#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#203
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement-0.1#304

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#4
First Shot+16.5#1
After Offensive Rebounds-5.5#357
Layups/Dunks+8.5#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#10
Freethrows+2.4#60
Improvement+0.1#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.5% 17.4% 8.2%
#1 Seed 39.7% 48.1% 28.4%
Top 2 Seed 64.1% 73.4% 51.7%
Top 4 Seed 87.6% 92.8% 80.6%
Top 6 Seed 95.5% 97.8% 92.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.8% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.7% 98.0%
Average Seed 2.4 2.1 2.9
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 96.4% 92.6%
Conference Champion 49.7% 54.9% 42.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round99.1% 99.8% 98.1%
Second Round91.5% 94.1% 88.1%
Sweet Sixteen66.7% 70.9% 61.2%
Elite Eight42.4% 46.9% 36.5%
Final Four25.2% 28.9% 20.2%
Championship Game14.4% 17.3% 10.6%
National Champion7.7% 9.5% 5.3%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 5
Quad 25 - 116 - 6
Quad 32 - 018 - 6
Quad 47 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 188   UTEP W 72-57 97%     1 - 0 +11.0 +4.2 +7.7
  Nov 10, 2022 350   Houston Christian W 82-31 99.6%    2 - 0 +34.7 +1.7 +33.1
  Nov 16, 2022 9   Gonzaga W 93-74 68%     3 - 0 +33.4 +19.2 +13.2
  Nov 21, 2022 305   Northern Arizona W 73-48 99%     4 - 0 +17.0 -6.5 +23.4
  Nov 26, 2022 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 91-54 99%     5 - 0 +25.3 +2.1 +19.8
  Dec 01, 2022 10   Creighton W 72-67 69%     6 - 0 +19.2 +2.3 +16.7
  Dec 06, 2022 8   Illinois W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 10, 2022 336   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-53 100.0%   
  Dec 12, 2022 284   Rice W 88-59 99.6%   
  Dec 18, 2022 81   Stanford W 72-59 88%    
  Dec 21, 2022 121   Louisiana W 79-60 96%    
  Dec 27, 2022 264   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-52 99%    
  Dec 31, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 03, 2023 45   Kansas St. W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 07, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 11, 2023 52   TCU W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 14, 2023 27   Texas Tech W 70-61 80%    
  Jan 17, 2023 33   @ Iowa St. W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 21, 2023 14   @ West Virginia L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 24, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 28, 2023 5   @ Tennessee L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 30, 2023 20   Baylor W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 45   @ Kansas St. W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 06, 2023 17   @ Kansas W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 14   West Virginia W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 13, 2023 27   @ Texas Tech W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 18, 2023 40   Oklahoma W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 21, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 25, 2023 20   @ Baylor W 77-75 56%    
  Mar 01, 2023 52   @ TCU W 71-64 72%    
  Mar 04, 2023 17   Kansas W 73-67 72%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.3 7.2 11.2 12.3 9.6 5.2 1.6 49.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 6.6 7.1 3.7 1.0 0.1 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 4.6 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.5 7.1 10.0 12.9 15.5 15.0 13.3 9.7 5.2 1.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 5.2    5.2 0.0
16-2 99.3% 9.6    9.3 0.4
15-3 92.6% 12.3    10.5 1.8 0.0
14-4 74.7% 11.2    7.5 3.4 0.3
13-5 46.7% 7.2    3.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 0.0
12-6 17.5% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.7% 49.7 37.8 9.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.1 1.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 5.2% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 1.1 4.9 0.4 100.0%
16-2 9.7% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.2 8.2 1.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.3% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.3 9.8 3.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.0% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.5 8.1 5.8 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.5% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.0 4.9 6.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.9% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.5 1.8 4.5 4.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.0% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.3 0.4 1.7 3.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 7.1% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 4.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 4.5% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 5.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 2.7% 99.6% 11.1% 88.5% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
7-11 1.5% 88.1% 10.2% 77.8% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 86.7%
6-12 0.6% 65.0% 13.0% 52.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 59.8%
5-13 0.3% 27.8% 1.9% 25.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 26.4%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.2% 26.6% 72.6% 2.4 39.7 24.4 14.9 8.6 5.2 2.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2