Buffalo
Mid-American
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#190
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#191
Pace83.4#2
Improvement+0.2#33

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#209
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#323
Layup/Dunks+2.2#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#297
Freethrows+2.5#52
Improvement+0.2#39

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#176
First Shot-0.8#205
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#126
Layups/Dunks-0.5#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#15
Freethrows-5.2#355
Improvement+0.1#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.2% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 28.9% 42.6% 19.5%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 64.2% 52.9%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.3% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.1% 4.6%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round2.9% 3.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 34 - 55 - 12
Quad 48 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 123   Colgate W 88-87 45%     1 - 0 +1.3 -2.8 +3.9
  Nov 12, 2022 61   James Madison L 62-97 26%     1 - 1 -29.4 -21.2 -0.9
  Nov 15, 2022 2   @ Connecticut L 64-84 2%     1 - 2 +3.3 -3.8 +9.0
  Nov 18, 2022 73   Drake L 72-80 20%     1 - 3 -0.3 +1.5 -1.8
  Nov 19, 2022 324   Howard L 59-63 81%     1 - 4 -14.3 -19.6 +5.2
  Nov 21, 2022 156   George Mason W 82-74 43%     2 - 4 +8.7 +8.2 +0.4
  Nov 27, 2022 293   Canisius W 86-66 80%     3 - 4 +9.9 -0.5 +8.5
  Dec 03, 2022 107   St. Bonaventure L 72-74 41%    
  Dec 10, 2022 104   Tulane L 76-82 30%    
  Dec 18, 2022 14   @ West Virginia L 66-87 3%    
  Dec 30, 2022 36   @ Michigan St. L 67-82 8%    
  Jan 03, 2023 152   Ohio W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 275   Northern Illinois W 81-74 75%    
  Jan 10, 2023 287   @ Miami (OH) W 82-80 59%    
  Jan 14, 2023 243   @ Central Michigan L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 17, 2023 280   Bowling Green W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 21, 2023 101   Toledo L 86-89 40%    
  Jan 24, 2023 184   @ Ball St. L 78-81 39%    
  Jan 28, 2023 53   @ Kent St. L 69-83 11%    
  Jan 31, 2023 137   Akron L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 315   @ Western Michigan W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 07, 2023 269   Eastern Michigan W 84-77 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 53   Kent St. L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 14, 2023 152   @ Ohio L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 137   @ Akron L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 21, 2023 243   Central Michigan W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 101   @ Toledo L 83-92 22%    
  Feb 28, 2023 275   @ Northern Illinois W 78-77 55%    
  Mar 03, 2023 287   Miami (OH) W 85-77 77%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.5 2.4 0.2 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.6 6.3 2.2 0.3 14.2 5th
6th 0.5 4.2 6.0 2.3 0.2 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.9 2.6 0.2 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.4 10.9 13.9 14.2 13.9 11.3 8.7 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 87.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 65.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 28.1% 0.8    0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 20.9% 20.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.2% 12.9% 12.5% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.5%
14-4 2.9% 10.6% 10.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-5 4.9% 8.3% 8.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
12-6 8.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.2
11-7 11.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.7
10-8 13.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 13.5
9-9 14.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 13.8
8-10 13.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.6
7-11 10.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 8.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.3
5-13 5.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 96.6 0.0%