Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#133
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#42
Pace65.8#259
Improvement-0.1#285

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#57
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#70
Layup/Dunks-0.3#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#53
Freethrows-3.2#334
Improvement-0.1#241

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#240
First Shot+1.6#129
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#337
Layups/Dunks+0.7#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#180
Freethrows-1.1#241
Improvement-0.1#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.2% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.9
.500 or above 82.4% 87.8% 68.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.1% 62.1% 47.6%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.1% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 3.5% 7.5%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
First Round4.8% 5.4% 3.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 38 - 59 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 229   Montana W 91-63 80%     1 - 0 +21.5 +18.0 +4.6
  Nov 11, 2022 18   @ Kentucky L 52-77 7%     1 - 1 -6.3 -11.2 +5.2
  Nov 14, 2022 347   South Carolina St. W 96-71 95%     2 - 1 +8.8 +9.0 -1.5
  Nov 18, 2022 123   Colgate W 85-80 47%     3 - 1 +8.3 +7.9 +0.2
  Nov 21, 2022 250   North Florida W 83-82 82%     4 - 1 -6.3 +8.7 -15.0
  Nov 23, 2022 356   Alabama St. W 75-57 96%     5 - 1 +0.2 +4.3 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2022 163   UC Santa Barbara W 72-61 69%     6 - 1 +8.3 +5.0 +4.3
  Dec 03, 2022 184   Ball St. W 78-72 72%    
  Dec 08, 2022 93   Marshall W 78-77 51%    
  Dec 11, 2022 102   New Mexico St. W 77-76 53%    
  Dec 14, 2022 116   DePaul W 76-74 56%    
  Dec 17, 2022 131   Indiana St. W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 21, 2022 208   Winthrop W 80-72 77%    
  Dec 28, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 60-68 22%    
  Dec 31, 2022 175   Rhode Island W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 04, 2023 85   Virginia Commonwealth L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 07, 2023 99   @ Richmond L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 11, 2023 192   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 18, 2023 107   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 21, 2023 174   Fordham W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 25, 2023 170   Loyola Chicago W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 28, 2023 100   @ Massachusetts L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 04, 2023 198   @ George Washington W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 08, 2023 156   George Mason W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 107   St. Bonaventure W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 15, 2023 192   Saint Joseph's W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 46   @ Saint Louis L 71-81 17%    
  Feb 22, 2023 221   @ La Salle W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 26, 2023 119   Davidson W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 01, 2023 100   Massachusetts W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 04, 2023 174   @ Fordham L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.7 4.1 3.6 0.5 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.2 2.3 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 4.0 3.9 0.5 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 4.5 1.2 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.0 2.5 0.2 7.4 10th
11th 0.3 2.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.2 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.3 3.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.4 8.0 10.7 12.9 13.6 13.3 11.5 8.6 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.2% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 75.1% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 45.3% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 80.0% 20.0% 60.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0%
16-2 0.6% 60.9% 19.1% 41.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 51.6%
15-3 1.3% 36.8% 10.8% 26.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 29.2%
14-4 3.3% 26.0% 11.0% 15.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 16.8%
13-5 5.8% 13.7% 8.3% 5.3% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.0 5.8%
12-6 8.6% 8.4% 6.2% 2.2% 12.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.9 2.4%
11-7 11.5% 6.1% 5.7% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.8 0.5%
10-8 13.3% 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.8 0.0%
9-9 13.6% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.1 0.0%
8-10 12.9% 2.2% 2.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.6
7-11 10.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
6-12 8.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9
5-13 5.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
4-14 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 4.0% 1.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 94.3 1.8%