Auburn
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#29
Expected Predictive Rating+16.0#24
Pace74.3#66
Improvement+0.0#156

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#107
First Shot-3.8#295
After Offensive Rebound+5.8#6
Layup/Dunks+2.5#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#341
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement-0.1#255

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#5
First Shot+14.7#2
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#340
Layups/Dunks+1.6#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#6
Freethrows+3.1#36
Improvement+0.1#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.5% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 7.0% 7.6% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 23.2% 25.0% 9.7%
Top 6 Seed 45.6% 48.1% 26.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.0% 84.9% 68.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.6% 83.6% 66.7%
Average Seed 6.3 6.1 7.2
.500 or above 96.3% 97.4% 88.1%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 78.2% 64.8%
Conference Champion 7.6% 8.1% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four4.8% 4.5% 6.3%
First Round80.6% 82.6% 65.2%
Second Round52.1% 53.8% 39.0%
Sweet Sixteen22.9% 24.0% 14.5%
Elite Eight9.3% 9.9% 5.0%
Final Four3.7% 4.0% 1.6%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.6%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 35 - 117 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 156   George Mason W 70-52 91%     1 - 0 +15.7 -4.9 +20.5
  Nov 11, 2022 185   South Florida W 67-59 93%     2 - 0 +4.2 -6.9 +10.9
  Nov 15, 2022 208   Winthrop W 89-65 94%     3 - 0 +18.7 +15.3 +4.7
  Nov 18, 2022 252   Texas Southern W 72-56 96%     4 - 0 +8.6 -6.4 +14.2
  Nov 22, 2022 120   Bradley W 85-64 81%     5 - 0 +24.4 +16.0 +8.6
  Nov 23, 2022 90   Northwestern W 43-42 76%     6 - 0 +6.6 -16.0 +22.8
  Nov 27, 2022 46   Saint Louis W 65-60 72%     7 - 0 +12.0 -10.0 +21.8
  Dec 02, 2022 123   Colgate W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 10, 2022 31   Memphis W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 14, 2022 204   Georgia St. W 73-55 95%    
  Dec 18, 2022 71   @ USC W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 21, 2022 97   @ Washington W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 28, 2022 66   Florida W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 04, 2023 124   @ Georgia W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 15   Arkansas L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 10, 2023 64   @ Mississippi W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 14, 2023 26   Mississippi St. W 62-59 60%    
  Jan 18, 2023 62   @ LSU W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 21, 2023 231   @ South Carolina W 72-58 89%    
  Jan 25, 2023 56   Texas A&M W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 28, 2023 14   @ West Virginia L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 01, 2023 124   Georgia W 72-59 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 5   @ Tennessee L 59-68 22%    
  Feb 07, 2023 56   @ Texas A&M W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 12   Alabama L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 14, 2023 51   Missouri W 81-75 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 88   @ Vanderbilt W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 22, 2023 64   Mississippi W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 25, 2023 18   @ Kentucky L 66-72 30%    
  Mar 01, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 69-76 28%    
  Mar 04, 2023 5   Tennessee L 62-65 40%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.4 1.1 0.1 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.3 0.9 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.2 1.1 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.5 4.1 5.7 1.6 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 5.9 2.0 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.7 0.3 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.9 0.4 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.1 0.7 6.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.0 6.4 9.8 12.3 14.1 14.4 13.0 10.5 6.8 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.7% 1.5    1.2 0.3
15-3 67.4% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.0% 2.4    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.6 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.5% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.4 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.8% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.2 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.5% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 4.1 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.3 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 13.0% 99.9% 9.2% 90.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.8 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 14.4% 98.8% 8.3% 90.5% 6.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.1 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 98.7%
10-8 14.1% 95.3% 6.6% 88.7% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.3 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.7 95.0%
9-9 12.3% 87.6% 4.7% 83.0% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 87.0%
8-10 9.8% 61.9% 3.6% 58.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 60.5%
7-11 6.4% 32.2% 3.4% 28.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 29.8%
6-12 4.0% 13.2% 3.2% 10.0% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 10.3%
5-13 1.9% 3.6% 2.6% 1.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.1%
4-14 0.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 83.0% 7.7% 75.3% 6.3 2.2 4.8 6.9 9.2 10.7 11.7 10.2 8.8 7.5 5.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 17.0 81.6%