Samford
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#125
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#201
Pace73.2#80
Improvement+0.0#128

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#73
First Shot+2.8#92
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#103
Layup/Dunks+1.4#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#174
Freethrows+3.1#29
Improvement+0.0#124

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#207
First Shot-1.9#235
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#123
Layups/Dunks+7.0#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.7#359
Freethrows-1.8#288
Improvement+0.0#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.7% 28.9% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.7 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 88.4% 96.3% 85.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 95.2% 90.3%
Conference Champion 27.3% 36.1% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.9% 0.3% 1.1%
First Round21.3% 28.8% 18.9%
Second Round2.9% 5.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 217 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 17, 2022 344   @ Alabama A&M W 84-64 88%     1 - 0 +10.2 -2.5 +10.4
  Nov 20, 2022 252   Texas Southern W 78-63 84%     2 - 0 +7.5 +7.3 +0.9
  Nov 23, 2022 276   Valparaiso W 79-49 87%     3 - 0 +21.2 +4.0 +17.7
  Nov 25, 2022 119   Louisiana Tech L 76-79 60%     3 - 1 -2.4 -3.2 +1.0
  Nov 30, 2022 117   @ DePaul L 98-103 OT 36%     3 - 2 +1.8 +9.3 -6.6
  Dec 04, 2022 75   @ Central Florida L 64-71 25%    
  Dec 10, 2022 122   @ Louisiana L 74-77 38%    
  Dec 17, 2022 347   @ South Carolina St. W 86-73 89%    
  Dec 21, 2022 140   @ Belmont L 77-79 43%    
  Dec 28, 2022 200   Mercer W 78-70 76%    
  Dec 31, 2022 270   @ The Citadel W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 04, 2023 332   VMI W 88-70 95%    
  Jan 07, 2023 223   @ UNC Greensboro W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 11, 2023 162   Wofford W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 149   Chattanooga W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 18, 2023 238   @ East Tennessee St. W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 21, 2023 284   Western Carolina W 85-73 87%    
  Jan 25, 2023 86   @ Furman L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 28, 2023 162   @ Wofford L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 01, 2023 284   @ Western Carolina W 82-76 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 238   East Tennessee St. W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 08, 2023 200   @ Mercer W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 270   The Citadel W 82-70 84%    
  Feb 15, 2023 223   UNC Greensboro W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 18, 2023 332   @ VMI W 85-73 85%    
  Feb 22, 2023 149   @ Chattanooga L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 86   Furman L 77-78 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 6.3 7.9 6.1 2.9 0.8 27.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.5 8.6 6.6 2.6 0.4 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.7 6.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.7 0.4 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.2 6.6 9.6 12.3 14.4 14.5 13.5 10.5 6.5 2.9 0.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.8 0.1
16-2 93.9% 6.1    5.2 0.9
15-3 75.4% 7.9    5.3 2.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 46.5% 6.3    3.0 2.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 18.4% 2.7    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 17.9 7.7 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 73.4% 65.5% 7.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 22.8%
17-1 2.9% 55.7% 54.0% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 3.6%
16-2 6.5% 44.2% 44.2% 0.1% 12.8 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.6 0.1%
15-3 10.5% 36.7% 36.7% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.3 6.7
14-4 13.5% 29.3% 29.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 9.6
13-5 14.5% 21.6% 21.6% 14.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 11.4
12-6 14.4% 17.1% 17.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 11.9
11-7 12.3% 12.8% 12.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 10.7
10-8 9.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 8.7
9-9 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.1
8-10 4.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.0
7-11 2.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
6-12 1.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.7% 21.6% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.6 6.8 4.3 1.8 78.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 88.4% 7.9 2.9 4.3 29.0 11.6 4.3 4.3 17.4 11.6 2.9