Louisiana
Sun Belt
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#122
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#50
Pace73.2#78
Improvement-0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#172
First Shot-1.6#226
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#82
Layup/Dunks+0.0#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#298
Freethrows-0.7#218
Improvement+0.3#30

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#76
First Shot+2.6#93
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#143
Layups/Dunks+0.7#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#135
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-0.4#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 12.5% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 91.5% 93.7% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 86.4% 72.6%
Conference Champion 13.4% 14.1% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.8%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
First Round11.1% 11.8% 5.5%
Second Round2.3% 2.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 38 - 8
Quad 410 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 153   Harvard W 75-61 59%     1 - 0 +14.9 +7.7 +7.9
  Nov 13, 2022 238   East Tennessee St. W 81-77 76%     2 - 0 +0.1 +2.3 -2.4
  Nov 17, 2022 119   Louisiana Tech W 94-88 61%     3 - 0 +6.6 +14.5 -8.3
  Nov 22, 2022 155   @ SMU W 76-72 OT 48%     4 - 0 +7.9 +0.0 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2022 71   @ Drake L 64-76 24%     4 - 1 -1.3 -6.0 +5.1
  Dec 03, 2022 337   @ New Orleans W 82-70 88%    
  Dec 10, 2022 125   Samford W 77-74 62%    
  Dec 15, 2022 354   @ McNeese St. W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 21, 2022 4   @ Texas L 60-79 4%    
  Dec 29, 2022 240   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-67 66%    
  Dec 31, 2022 147   @ Old Dominion L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 05, 2023 109   Southern Miss W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 07, 2023 205   Georgia St. W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 12, 2023 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 14, 2023 148   @ South Alabama L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 19, 2023 272   @ Arkansas St. W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 167   @ Texas St. W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 26, 2023 156   Troy W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 28, 2023 292   Georgia Southern W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 02, 2023 167   Texas St. W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 94   Marshall W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 09, 2023 109   @ Southern Miss L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 11, 2023 156   @ Troy L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 16, 2023 316   Louisiana Monroe W 79-63 92%    
  Feb 18, 2023 60   @ James Madison L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 22, 2023 272   Arkansas St. W 71-59 85%    
  Feb 24, 2023 148   South Alabama W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.2 4.2 3.1 1.3 0.3 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.4 5.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.6 5.0 1.5 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.4 5.2 1.2 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.2 1.4 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 4.3 1.8 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.2 0.2 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.5 9.4 11.9 14.5 14.3 12.8 10.2 6.5 3.6 1.3 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.1% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 88.0% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 64.8% 4.2    2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 31.1% 3.2    1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
13-5 9.0% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 7.3 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 74.1% 43.0% 31.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 54.5%
17-1 1.3% 61.1% 32.7% 28.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 42.2%
16-2 3.6% 40.2% 26.6% 13.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 18.5%
15-3 6.5% 28.3% 23.2% 5.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.6 6.7%
14-4 10.2% 17.6% 16.6% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 8.4 1.2%
13-5 12.8% 13.3% 13.2% 0.2% 12.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 11.1 0.2%
12-6 14.3% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.0%
11-7 14.5% 7.8% 7.8% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 13.4
10-8 11.9% 5.7% 5.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.2
9-9 9.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.1
8-10 6.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4
7-11 4.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.2
6-12 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.7% 10.3% 1.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.4 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.2 88.3 1.6%