Central Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#75
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#92
Pace62.5#332
Improvement+0.1#91

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#165
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#53
Layup/Dunks-2.4#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#125
Freethrows-1.4#259
Improvement+0.0#228

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#38
First Shot+9.4#13
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#300
Layups/Dunks+2.7#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#77
Freethrows+3.3#32
Improvement+0.2#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 19.7% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.0% 15.4% 5.7%
Average Seed 10.2 10.1 10.8
.500 or above 89.6% 93.2% 78.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 78.1% 66.0%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.2% 3.0%
First Four4.7% 5.5% 2.3%
First Round14.7% 16.9% 8.0%
Second Round5.6% 6.6% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 23 - 35 - 8
Quad 36 - 311 - 10
Quad 47 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 200   UNC Asheville L 95-98 2OT 87%     0 - 1 -7.6 +0.9 -7.9
  Nov 11, 2022 187   Florida St. W 68-54 86%     1 - 1 +10.0 -2.0 +12.9
  Nov 14, 2022 301   Western Illinois W 70-37 94%     2 - 1 +22.3 -3.4 +28.7
  Nov 18, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. W 60-56 OT 38%     3 - 1 +14.6 -8.1 +22.5
  Nov 20, 2022 103   Santa Clara W 57-50 61%     4 - 1 +11.5 -7.9 +20.1
  Nov 23, 2022 313   Evansville W 76-56 95%     5 - 1 +8.1 -1.2 +8.6
  Nov 27, 2022 37   Miami (FL) L 64-66 49%     5 - 2 +5.8 +0.9 +4.6
  Dec 04, 2022 125   Samford W 71-64 76%    
  Dec 11, 2022 134   Tarleton St. W 68-60 77%    
  Dec 14, 2022 64   @ Mississippi L 60-64 36%    
  Dec 16, 2022 51   Missouri L 71-73 42%    
  Dec 21, 2022 202   Stetson W 72-60 87%    
  Dec 28, 2022 94   Wichita St. W 62-57 69%    
  Dec 31, 2022 1   @ Houston L 48-65 6%    
  Jan 04, 2023 206   @ East Carolina W 67-61 72%    
  Jan 08, 2023 153   SMU W 67-58 81%    
  Jan 11, 2023 31   Memphis L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 14, 2023 104   @ Tulane L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 21, 2023 185   @ South Florida W 62-57 68%    
  Jan 25, 2023 1   Houston L 51-62 16%    
  Jan 28, 2023 95   Temple W 65-60 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 89   @ Cincinnati L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 08, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. L 59-60 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 168   Tulsa W 72-62 83%    
  Feb 16, 2023 31   @ Memphis L 60-68 24%    
  Feb 19, 2023 89   Cincinnati W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 22, 2023 185   South Florida W 65-54 84%    
  Feb 26, 2023 168   @ Tulsa W 69-65 65%    
  Mar 02, 2023 95   @ Temple L 62-63 48%    
  Mar 05, 2023 206   East Carolina W 70-58 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.3 4.7 1.7 0.3 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.8 7.4 7.7 3.7 0.8 0.0 22.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 7.5 5.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 18.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.8 4.5 0.9 0.1 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.8 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 10.5 13.2 15.4 14.9 12.8 9.3 6.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 63.6% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 28.7% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1
14-4 8.8% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 90.8% 15.6% 75.1% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.0%
15-3 2.5% 83.3% 14.1% 69.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 80.6%
14-4 6.0% 65.9% 8.5% 57.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 62.7%
13-5 9.3% 39.5% 8.2% 31.4% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.6 34.2%
12-6 12.8% 22.6% 6.1% 16.5% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 17.6%
11-7 14.9% 12.0% 5.1% 6.9% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.1 7.2%
10-8 15.4% 5.9% 3.9% 2.0% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.5 2.1%
9-9 13.2% 3.2% 2.7% 0.5% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.5%
8-10 10.5% 2.4% 2.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
7-11 6.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
6-12 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.1% 4.7% 12.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.1 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 82.9 13.0%