Belmont
Missouri Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#139
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#132
Pace72.1#96
Improvement+0.2#57

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#96
First Shot+4.4#64
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#279
Layup/Dunks+4.3#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#45
Freethrows-2.5#308
Improvement+0.2#38

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#197
First Shot+1.6#128
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#299
Layups/Dunks-3.1#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#49
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement+0.0#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.6% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 80.3% 86.9% 68.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 85.0% 63.3%
Conference Champion 12.7% 16.6% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round7.4% 8.4% 5.5%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 68 - 11
Quad 49 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 152   Ohio W 70-69 66%     1 - 0 -1.1 -4.7 +3.7
  Nov 11, 2022 87   @ Furman L 74-89 25%     1 - 1 -5.8 +1.0 -6.3
  Nov 14, 2022 160   @ Lipscomb L 75-77 45%     1 - 2 +1.4 -1.8 +3.2
  Nov 18, 2022 134   Tarleton St. L 81-89 48%     1 - 3 -5.5 +4.2 -9.0
  Nov 19, 2022 156   George Mason W 66-62 56%     2 - 3 +4.7 -1.9 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2022 324   Howard W 96-73 87%     3 - 3 +12.7 +10.1 +1.1
  Nov 27, 2022 204   @ Georgia St. W 68-66 53%     4 - 3 +3.3 +1.3 +2.1
  Dec 01, 2022 278   Valparaiso W 76-64 85%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +3.1 +3.1 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2022 256   @ Illinois St. W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 10, 2022 130   Middle Tennessee W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 18, 2022 149   @ Chattanooga L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 21, 2022 125   Samford W 79-77 57%    
  Dec 28, 2022 120   Bradley W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 01, 2023 117   @ Southern Illinois L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 04, 2023 254   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 07, 2023 114   Missouri St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 10, 2023 278   @ Valparaiso W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 14, 2023 173   Northern Iowa W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 17, 2023 112   Murray St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 21, 2023 120   @ Bradley L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 25, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 29, 2023 73   Drake L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 01, 2023 112   @ Murray St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 256   Illinois St. W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 08, 2023 114   @ Missouri St. L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 11, 2023 254   Illinois-Chicago W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 15, 2023 313   Evansville W 76-62 89%    
  Feb 19, 2023 73   @ Drake L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 22, 2023 131   Indiana St. W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 26, 2023 173   @ Northern Iowa L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 4.9 2.6 0.3 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.2 0.2 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.1 11.6 13.6 14.1 12.9 10.4 7.0 4.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 95.3% 2.0    1.8 0.3
16-4 78.7% 3.6    2.4 1.1 0.1
15-5 49.5% 3.5    1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 20.4% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.3 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 57.4% 40.4% 17.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.6%
18-2 0.8% 29.3% 23.6% 5.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 7.5%
17-3 2.1% 22.7% 21.1% 1.6% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.7 2.1%
16-4 4.6% 13.6% 13.6% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9
15-5 7.0% 13.9% 13.9% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 6.1
14-6 10.4% 10.9% 10.9% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 9.2
13-7 12.9% 8.8% 8.8% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 11.7
12-8 14.1% 7.5% 7.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 13.1
11-9 13.6% 5.4% 5.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.9
10-10 11.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.0
9-11 9.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.9
8-12 6.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.2
7-13 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.8
6-14 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.6% 7.5% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.1 1.2 0.7 92.4 0.1%