Chattanooga
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#149
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#176
Pace64.0#299
Improvement-0.3#245

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#138
First Shot+1.9#113
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#231
Layup/Dunks-2.9#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#20
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement-0.1#197

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#179
First Shot-0.4#194
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#161
Layups/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#229
Freethrows+1.3#115
Improvement-0.2#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 16.2% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 73.5% 85.4% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 87.8% 78.5%
Conference Champion 15.5% 19.8% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.5%
First Round12.2% 15.7% 9.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Away) - 44.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 410 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 81   @ College of Charleston L 78-85 21%     0 - 1 +2.7 +1.2 +1.9
  Nov 15, 2022 64   @ Mississippi L 58-70 17%     0 - 2 -0.7 -4.6 +3.0
  Nov 23, 2022 163   Lipscomb L 66-72 65%     0 - 3 -8.6 -10.6 +1.9
  Nov 26, 2022 98   Murray St. W 69-66 47%     1 - 3 +5.0 +1.8 +3.4
  Nov 30, 2022 314   @ Tennessee Tech W 81-74 76%     2 - 3 +0.9 +4.6 -3.6
  Dec 03, 2022 172   @ Gardner-Webb L 63-65 45%    
  Dec 06, 2022 229   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 15, 2022 127   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 18, 2022 140   Belmont W 72-70 58%    
  Dec 21, 2022 123   @ Georgia L 63-68 32%    
  Dec 29, 2022 270   @ The Citadel W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 31, 2022 200   @ Mercer L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 04, 2023 223   @ UNC Greensboro W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 332   VMI W 80-64 93%    
  Jan 11, 2023 284   Western Carolina W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 14, 2023 125   @ Samford L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 18, 2023 86   Furman L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 21, 2023 238   East Tennessee St. W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 25, 2023 162   Wofford W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 28, 2023 238   @ East Tennessee St. W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 01, 2023 86   @ Furman L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 04, 2023 284   @ Western Carolina W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 08, 2023 270   The Citadel W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 11, 2023 200   Mercer W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 15, 2023 332   @ VMI W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 223   UNC Greensboro W 67-59 75%    
  Feb 22, 2023 125   Samford W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 162   @ Wofford L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.3 4.4 2.8 1.1 0.3 15.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.9 7.2 4.7 1.7 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.4 7.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 19.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 6.0 4.9 1.5 0.2 14.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.8 7.4 10.1 12.3 13.6 14.0 12.7 9.5 6.1 3.0 1.1 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 93.9% 2.8    2.4 0.4
15-3 72.3% 4.4    3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.1% 4.3    2.0 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.6% 2.1    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.4 4.8 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 69.9% 47.8% 22.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.3%
17-1 1.1% 48.3% 46.3% 2.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3.7%
16-2 3.0% 38.1% 37.9% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.3%
15-3 6.1% 27.2% 27.2% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 4.4
14-4 9.5% 22.3% 22.3% 13.6 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 7.4
13-5 12.7% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10.5
12-6 14.0% 12.4% 12.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 12.2
11-7 13.6% 10.3% 10.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 12.2
10-8 12.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 11.4
9-9 10.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.6
8-10 7.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.1
7-11 4.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.7
6-12 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.8
5-13 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.8% 12.7% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.8 2.7 1.7 87.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 80.6% 8.1 5.6 5.6 11.1 16.7 13.9 11.1 16.7