Furman
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#86
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#119
Pace68.7#182
Improvement-0.2#219

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#43
First Shot+7.5#20
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#292
Layup/Dunks+4.4#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#16
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement-0.2#283

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#168
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#134
Layups/Dunks+2.7#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#236
Freethrows+1.7#90
Improvement+0.0#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.8% 45.1% 30.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.7
.500 or above 98.8% 98.9% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 97.9% 93.6%
Conference Champion 55.5% 55.8% 38.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round44.5% 44.8% 29.7%
Second Round9.5% 9.6% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 2.8% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 6
Quad 414 - 221 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 140   Belmont W 89-74 75%     1 - 0 +14.0 +11.5 +2.1
  Nov 17, 2022 43   Penn St. L 68-73 35%     1 - 1 +5.1 +6.0 -1.4
  Nov 18, 2022 147   Old Dominion L 77-82 68%     1 - 2 -3.6 +2.7 -6.1
  Nov 20, 2022 232   South Carolina W 79-60 82%     2 - 2 +15.3 +10.6 +5.6
  Nov 29, 2022 204   @ Appalachian St. W 65-61 68%     3 - 2 +5.2 -6.2 +11.4
  Dec 03, 2022 347   South Carolina St. W 88-66 98%    
  Dec 06, 2022 201   High Point W 81-70 84%    
  Dec 10, 2022 209   Winthrop W 82-71 86%    
  Dec 13, 2022 31   @ North Carolina St. L 74-83 19%    
  Dec 17, 2022 168   Stephen F. Austin W 78-69 80%    
  Dec 29, 2022 332   VMI W 87-66 97%    
  Dec 31, 2022 284   @ Western Carolina W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 04, 2023 270   The Citadel W 82-67 91%    
  Jan 07, 2023 238   @ East Tennessee St. W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 11, 2023 200   @ Mercer W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 14, 2023 223   UNC Greensboro W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 18, 2023 149   @ Chattanooga W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 21, 2023 162   @ Wofford W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 25, 2023 125   Samford W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 29, 2023 223   @ UNC Greensboro W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 01, 2023 149   Chattanooga W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 162   Wofford W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 08, 2023 332   @ VMI W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 11, 2023 284   Western Carolina W 84-68 92%    
  Feb 15, 2023 270   @ The Citadel W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 19, 2023 238   East Tennessee St. W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 22, 2023 200   Mercer W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 25, 2023 125   @ Samford W 78-77 50%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 9.9 14.5 14.2 9.0 3.2 55.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.1 7.5 6.2 2.6 0.4 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.0 7.0 10.1 13.8 16.6 17.1 14.7 9.0 3.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
17-1 100.0% 9.0    8.9 0.1
16-2 97.0% 14.2    12.9 1.3
15-3 84.5% 14.5    10.8 3.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 59.5% 9.9    5.4 3.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 28.7% 4.0    1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.5% 55.5 42.6 10.8 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.2% 85.3% 75.3% 10.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.5 40.6%
17-1 9.0% 72.1% 68.0% 4.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.4 0.1 2.5 12.8%
16-2 14.7% 60.2% 59.5% 0.7% 12.4 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 5.8 1.8%
15-3 17.1% 51.4% 51.1% 0.2% 12.9 0.2 2.6 4.1 1.9 0.1 8.3 0.5%
14-4 16.6% 43.8% 43.8% 13.3 0.0 1.0 3.4 2.6 0.3 9.3
13-5 13.8% 36.0% 36.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.9 0.0%
12-6 10.1% 28.3% 28.3% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 7.3
11-7 7.0% 23.8% 23.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 5.3
10-8 4.0% 17.7% 17.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.3
9-9 2.3% 14.2% 14.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9
8-10 1.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
7-11 0.6% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.1 0.5
6-12 0.3% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.8% 44.0% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 3.4 10.8 14.9 10.1 2.9 0.6 55.2 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 97.3% 6.0 0.9 3.2 16.9 23.7 22.3 12.3 5.9 4.3 5.0 2.7