South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#140
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#129
Pace74.7#60
Improvement-0.2#324

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#149
First Shot+3.8#73
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#326
Layup/Dunks+1.5#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#180
Freethrows+3.0#40
Improvement-0.2#338

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#146
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#112
Layups/Dunks-0.4#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#240
Freethrows+3.8#18
Improvement+0.0#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.3% 38.8% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 87.7% 96.4% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 98.2% 95.8%
Conference Champion 35.7% 44.3% 34.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.1% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round29.8% 38.6% 28.1%
Second Round3.1% 4.9% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 22 - 5
Quad 32 - 34 - 7
Quad 414 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 137   @ Akron L 80-81 OT 37%     0 - 1 +4.4 +5.1 -0.7
  Nov 09, 2022 63   @ Boise St. W 68-66 19%     1 - 1 +13.2 +3.1 +10.1
  Nov 15, 2022 107   St. Bonaventure W 66-62 40%     2 - 1 +8.3 -10.5 +18.4
  Nov 16, 2022 15   @ Arkansas L 56-71 6%     2 - 2 +4.4 -11.7 +17.8
  Nov 19, 2022 193   Stephen F. Austin L 82-93 72%     2 - 3 -15.3 +1.0 -15.6
  Nov 25, 2022 278   Valparaiso W 61-50 77%     3 - 3 +5.1 -8.7 +14.8
  Nov 26, 2022 61   James Madison L 60-79 26%     3 - 4 -10.4 -9.6 -0.5
  Dec 02, 2022 53   @ Kent St. L 67-78 16%    
  Dec 03, 2022 12   @ Alabama L 68-86 5%    
  Dec 06, 2022 229   @ Montana W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 10, 2022 258   Eastern Washington W 80-70 82%    
  Dec 19, 2022 106   @ Oral Roberts L 79-84 31%    
  Dec 21, 2022 282   @ UMKC W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 29, 2022 301   Western Illinois W 84-71 87%    
  Dec 31, 2022 290   St. Thomas W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 05, 2023 302   @ North Dakota St. W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 07, 2023 297   @ North Dakota W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 14, 2023 230   @ South Dakota W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 19, 2023 289   Nebraska Omaha W 82-70 85%    
  Jan 21, 2023 300   Denver W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 26, 2023 290   @ St. Thomas W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 28, 2023 301   @ Western Illinois W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 02, 2023 297   North Dakota W 79-67 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 302   North Dakota St. W 82-69 87%    
  Feb 11, 2023 230   South Dakota W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 16, 2023 300   @ Denver W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 289   @ Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 23, 2023 282   UMKC W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 25, 2023 106   Oral Roberts W 82-81 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 7.0 9.6 8.9 5.0 1.3 35.7 1st
2nd 0.4 2.9 7.1 10.8 9.0 4.6 1.0 35.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 4.1 6.6 10.3 12.7 15.7 16.3 14.3 9.9 5.0 1.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 5.0    4.8 0.2
16-2 89.8% 8.9    7.4 1.5 0.0
15-3 67.7% 9.6    6.7 2.9 0.1
14-4 42.8% 7.0    3.8 2.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 19.7% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.7% 35.7 25.3 9.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 75.6% 71.7% 3.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 13.9%
17-1 5.0% 58.9% 58.4% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 1.2%
16-2 9.9% 48.8% 48.8% 0.1% 13.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.1%
15-3 14.3% 40.7% 40.7% 13.4 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.3 0.3 8.5
14-4 16.3% 35.7% 35.7% 13.7 0.2 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 10.5
13-5 15.7% 25.5% 25.5% 14.1 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.2 0.0 11.7
12-6 12.7% 21.5% 21.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.2 10.0
11-7 10.3% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 8.6
10-8 6.6% 13.1% 13.1% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 5.7
9-9 4.1% 11.1% 11.1% 15.9 0.1 0.4 3.7
8-10 2.0% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 1.9
7-11 1.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 1.1
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.3% 30.2% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.5 9.5 9.8 4.9 1.8 69.7 0.1%