Kent St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#54
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#79
Pace75.6#51
Improvement+0.4#19

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#145
First Shot+1.7#119
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#227
Layup/Dunks-4.3#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#42
Freethrows-1.1#251
Improvement-0.2#279

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#25
First Shot+5.6#43
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#36
Layups/Dunks+4.6#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#86
Freethrows-2.6#313
Improvement+0.6#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.8% 60.0% 46.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.7% 10.2% 2.5%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 12.4
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 99.1%
Conference Champion 70.3% 72.1% 60.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 2.4% 1.0%
First Round56.7% 58.8% 45.8%
Second Round19.0% 20.4% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 7.1% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.1% 0.7%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 38 - 29 - 6
Quad 413 - 122 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 237   @ Northern Kentucky W 79-57 83%     1 - 0 +21.1 +13.2 +10.0
  Nov 14, 2022 110   Portland W 77-65 78%     2 - 0 +13.1 -6.0 +17.9
  Nov 16, 2022 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94-68 98%     3 - 0 +10.9 +0.0 +6.5
  Nov 19, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 88-59 99%     4 - 0 +10.6 -5.1 +13.0
  Nov 23, 2022 81   @ College of Charleston L 72-74 49%     4 - 1 +7.7 +0.2 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2022 1   @ Houston L 44-49 9%     4 - 2 +19.4 -12.5 +31.8
  Dec 02, 2022 141   South Dakota St. W 78-68 84%    
  Dec 05, 2022 11   @ Gonzaga L 74-85 15%    
  Dec 10, 2022 202   @ Cleveland St. W 68-60 77%    
  Dec 21, 2022 104   New Mexico St. W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 03, 2023 312   Western Michigan W 81-60 98%    
  Jan 07, 2023 286   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 10, 2023 102   Toledo W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 14, 2023 157   @ Ohio W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 17, 2023 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 21, 2023 186   Ball St. W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 24, 2023 266   @ Northern Illinois W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 28, 2023 190   Buffalo W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 31, 2023 244   Central Michigan W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 04, 2023 137   @ Akron W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 07, 2023 271   Bowling Green W 82-64 94%    
  Feb 11, 2023 190   @ Buffalo W 79-72 75%    
  Feb 14, 2023 312   @ Western Michigan W 78-63 91%    
  Feb 18, 2023 263   Eastern Michigan W 83-65 94%    
  Feb 21, 2023 186   @ Ball St. W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 25, 2023 271   @ Bowling Green W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 28, 2023 157   Ohio W 77-65 85%    
  Mar 03, 2023 137   Akron W 68-58 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.9 14.1 20.1 18.1 8.9 70.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.8 6.3 4.3 1.2 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 5.2 9.1 14.0 18.6 21.3 18.2 8.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 8.9    8.9
17-1 99.7% 18.1    17.5 0.6
16-2 94.5% 20.1    17.3 2.8 0.0
15-3 76.1% 14.1    9.6 4.2 0.4
14-4 49.6% 6.9    3.1 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.2% 1.8    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 70.3% 70.3 56.8 11.5 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 8.9% 89.2% 75.3% 13.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.0 56.2%
17-1 18.2% 76.9% 67.9% 9.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 5.3 4.3 0.9 0.0 4.2 28.1%
16-2 21.3% 64.5% 60.4% 4.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.8 6.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.6 10.3%
15-3 18.6% 52.8% 51.6% 1.1% 12.3 0.1 1.2 4.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.8 2.4%
14-4 14.0% 45.0% 44.6% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.7 0.8%
13-5 9.1% 37.4% 37.4% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.9 0.1 5.7
12-6 5.2% 30.2% 30.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 3.6
11-7 2.5% 27.1% 27.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9
10-8 1.3% 19.6% 19.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
9-9 0.6% 15.1% 15.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
8-10 0.2% 10.1% 10.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 57.8% 53.8% 4.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 2.1 3.6 12.2 19.1 12.6 3.5 0.5 0.1 42.2 8.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 99.7% 4.4 1.8 5.9 16.4 30.7 23.9 12.9 5.6 2.0 0.3 0.3