Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#193
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#239
Pace72.5#87
Improvement-0.3#344

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#163
First Shot+0.3#159
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#186
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#316
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement-0.2#330

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#228
First Shot-3.7#279
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#59
Layups/Dunks+3.8#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#317
Freethrows-2.6#307
Improvement-0.1#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.3% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 38.4% 58.8% 32.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.5% 59.0% 45.3%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.6% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 3.0% 5.6%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round2.5% 4.0% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 47 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 172   Gardner-Webb W 86-71 57%     1 - 0 +11.8 +17.3 -5.3
  Nov 15, 2022 291   Alcorn St. L 60-69 79%     1 - 1 -18.9 -18.1 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2022 140   @ South Dakota St. W 93-82 28%     2 - 1 +15.9 +17.0 -1.8
  Nov 25, 2022 150   Quinnipiac L 44-58 41%     2 - 2 -12.9 -26.9 +14.2
  Nov 26, 2022 130   Middle Tennessee L 63-75 35%     2 - 3 -9.3 -8.8 +0.1
  Nov 27, 2022 227   UNC Greensboro W 75-58 58%     3 - 3 +13.6 +4.6 +9.2
  Dec 01, 2022 246   Northwestern St. L 96-102 72%     3 - 4 -13.2 +10.0 -22.8
  Dec 14, 2022 118   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-79 23%    
  Dec 17, 2022 87   @ Furman L 71-81 17%    
  Dec 22, 2022 309   Jackson St. W 79-69 82%    
  Dec 29, 2022 238   Abilene Christian W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 31, 2022 292   @ Texas Arlington W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 04, 2023 102   New Mexico St. L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 07, 2023 129   Grand Canyon L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 12, 2023 220   @ Utah Tech L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 14, 2023 179   @ Southern Utah L 79-83 37%    
  Jan 19, 2023 59   @ Sam Houston St. L 60-73 12%    
  Jan 25, 2023 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-75 83%    
  Jan 28, 2023 113   Seattle L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 02, 2023 102   @ New Mexico St. L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 04, 2023 129   @ Grand Canyon L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 11, 2023 310   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 134   Tarleton St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 292   Texas Arlington W 71-62 78%    
  Feb 22, 2023 238   @ Abilene Christian L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 26, 2023 161   California Baptist W 68-67 55%    
  Mar 01, 2023 59   Sam Houston St. L 63-70 27%    
  Mar 03, 2023 182   @ Utah Valley L 68-72 38%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.1 3.9 0.6 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.8 1.1 0.1 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.6 1.7 0.1 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.3 2.1 0.2 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.3 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.3 6.9 10.4 13.0 14.0 13.7 12.0 9.6 6.4 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.2% 0.2    0.2 0.1
15-3 67.1% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.8% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.4% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 14.9% 14.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.0% 8.8% 8.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
13-5 3.8% 7.9% 7.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.5
12-6 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.0
11-7 9.6% 5.1% 5.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.1
10-8 12.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.6
9-9 13.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.4
8-10 14.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 13.7
7-11 13.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.9
6-12 10.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.2
5-13 6.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.9
4-14 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 97.2 0.0%