James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#61
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#120
Pace76.6#35
Improvement-0.4#360

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#62
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#45
Layup/Dunks+4.4#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement-0.2#322

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#67
First Shot+3.4#72
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#145
Layups/Dunks+1.9#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#212
Freethrows+3.7#22
Improvement-0.2#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.5% 39.4% 26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.7% 6.1% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 12.7
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 98.5% 95.5%
Conference Champion 49.3% 50.3% 35.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.3% 0.7%
First Round37.5% 38.4% 26.3%
Second Round12.3% 12.8% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.3% 1.6%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 37 - 29 - 5
Quad 412 - 221 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 335   Hampton W 106-58 98%     1 - 0 +33.1 +17.1 +12.5
  Nov 12, 2022 190   @ Buffalo W 97-62 74%     2 - 0 +36.9 +5.4 +24.1
  Nov 15, 2022 324   @ Howard W 95-69 92%     3 - 0 +18.7 +11.0 +6.2
  Nov 20, 2022 23   @ North Carolina L 64-80 21%     3 - 1 +1.2 -7.3 +9.6
  Nov 26, 2022 140   South Dakota St. W 79-60 74%     4 - 1 +20.9 +6.0 +14.6
  Nov 27, 2022 278   Valparaiso L 79-81 OT 91%     4 - 2 -7.9 -4.0 -3.7
  Dec 02, 2022 247   Eastern Kentucky W 85-69 93%    
  Dec 06, 2022 13   @ Virginia L 62-73 15%    
  Dec 18, 2022 351   LIU Brooklyn W 90-65 99%    
  Dec 21, 2022 312   @ Coppin St. W 89-75 91%    
  Dec 29, 2022 204   @ Georgia St. W 73-66 75%    
  Dec 31, 2022 93   @ Marshall W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 05, 2023 166   Texas St. W 75-64 85%    
  Jan 07, 2023 203   Appalachian St. W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 12, 2023 144   @ South Alabama W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 14, 2023 294   Georgia Southern W 80-61 95%    
  Jan 19, 2023 154   @ Troy W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 21, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 26, 2023 236   Coastal Carolina W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 28, 2023 316   Louisiana Monroe W 85-64 97%    
  Feb 02, 2023 145   @ Old Dominion W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 04, 2023 203   @ Appalachian St. W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 09, 2023 294   @ Georgia Southern W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 11, 2023 236   @ Coastal Carolina W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 16, 2023 145   Old Dominion W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 121   Louisiana W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 22, 2023 93   Marshall W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 24, 2023 204   Georgia St. W 76-63 88%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.4 7.9 13.6 13.3 8.7 3.1 49.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 6.5 7.2 3.8 0.8 0.0 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.2 4.8 1.6 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.9 7.0 10.6 14.7 16.8 17.5 14.1 8.7 3.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
17-1 99.7% 8.7    8.4 0.3
16-2 94.0% 13.3    11.2 2.0 0.0
15-3 77.7% 13.6    8.7 4.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 47.1% 7.9    3.1 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.3% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.3% 49.3 35.0 11.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.1% 90.2% 64.4% 25.8% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 72.4%
17-1 8.7% 70.5% 53.2% 17.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.6 37.0%
16-2 14.1% 54.5% 47.9% 6.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.8 3.2 1.0 0.0 6.4 12.5%
15-3 17.5% 43.1% 40.7% 2.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.0 0.2 9.9 4.1%
14-4 16.8% 34.3% 34.0% 0.3% 12.5 0.4 2.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 11.0 0.5%
13-5 14.7% 28.8% 28.7% 0.1% 12.9 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 10.4 0.1%
12-6 10.6% 21.7% 21.7% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.0 8.3
11-7 7.0% 16.7% 16.7% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 5.8
10-8 3.9% 11.8% 11.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.4
9-9 2.0% 12.5% 12.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
8-10 1.1% 12.1% 12.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.5% 34.8% 3.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.1 7.2 12.6 9.5 3.1 0.5 0.1 61.5 5.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 4.5 1.3 3.8 17.3 35.3 17.3 17.3 4.5 1.9 0.6 0.6