St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#134
Pace65.0#275
Improvement+0.3#36

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#134
First Shot-0.7#191
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#67
Layup/Dunks-4.4#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#65
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+0.1#91

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#82
First Shot+2.6#96
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#163
Layups/Dunks-3.2#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#17
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement+0.2#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 11.6% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 3.7% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.7 12.6
.500 or above 81.3% 88.6% 70.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.6% 76.7% 64.1%
Conference Champion 8.2% 9.7% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.6% 3.2%
First Four1.5% 1.9% 1.0%
First Round8.6% 10.5% 5.9%
Second Round1.9% 2.5% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 59.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 38 - 511 - 11
Quad 47 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 324   St. Francis (PA) W 71-58 94%     1 - 0 -0.3 -2.4 +3.4
  Nov 12, 2022 293   @ Canisius L 80-84 OT 79%     1 - 1 -8.2 +3.7 -11.9
  Nov 15, 2022 141   South Dakota St. L 62-66 59%     1 - 2 -2.0 -16.2 +14.6
  Nov 19, 2022 271   Bowling Green W 81-68 88%     2 - 2 +4.5 +2.7 +1.6
  Nov 22, 2022 222   Southern Indiana W 80-66 84%     3 - 2 +7.8 -0.3 +7.1
  Nov 25, 2022 77   Notre Dame W 63-51 40%     4 - 2 +19.0 -1.0 +21.7
  Nov 30, 2022 127   Middle Tennessee W 71-64 67%     5 - 2 +6.9 +5.8 +1.6
  Dec 03, 2022 190   @ Buffalo W 74-72 59%    
  Dec 07, 2022 202   Cleveland St. W 66-57 80%    
  Dec 11, 2022 83   Iona L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 16, 2022 101   Florida Gulf Coast W 70-68 59%    
  Dec 19, 2022 191   @ Siena W 68-65 59%    
  Dec 22, 2022 174   @ Northern Iowa W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 31, 2022 99   Massachusetts W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 04, 2023 158   George Mason W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 46   @ Saint Louis L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 11, 2023 180   @ Rhode Island W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 14, 2023 100   Richmond W 64-62 58%    
  Jan 18, 2023 130   Duquesne W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 21, 2023 171   @ Loyola Chicago W 63-61 56%    
  Jan 25, 2023 177   Fordham W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-66 33%    
  Feb 01, 2023 100   @ Richmond L 61-65 38%    
  Feb 04, 2023 74   Dayton L 59-60 50%    
  Feb 08, 2023 220   La Salle W 70-59 83%    
  Feb 11, 2023 130   @ Duquesne L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 15, 2023 177   @ Fordham W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 19, 2023 194   George Washington W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 22, 2023 116   @ Davidson L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 26, 2023 193   Saint Joseph's W 73-64 78%    
  Mar 04, 2023 99   @ Massachusetts L 66-70 38%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.2 1st
2nd 0.4 2.4 4.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 5.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.6 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 5.0 1.2 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.8 2.4 0.1 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 3.1 3.5 0.4 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.0 0.2 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.2 7.5 10.6 12.7 14.2 13.7 11.8 9.0 5.6 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 99.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 92.3% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 74.4% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 47.4% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.8% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 4.1 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 74.9% 20.0% 54.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 68.6%
16-2 1.3% 66.3% 24.6% 41.7% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 55.3%
15-3 2.8% 41.9% 17.9% 23.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 29.2%
14-4 5.6% 23.8% 13.8% 10.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 11.6%
13-5 9.0% 14.6% 10.8% 3.8% 11.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.7 4.2%
12-6 11.8% 9.4% 8.7% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.7 0.8%
11-7 13.7% 7.9% 7.7% 0.1% 12.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.7 0.1%
10-8 14.2% 6.6% 6.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 13.3
9-9 12.7% 4.6% 4.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.1
8-10 10.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.2
7-11 7.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.3
6-12 5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 3.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.5% 7.0% 2.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 90.5 2.6%