Arkansas
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#15
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#21
Pace75.4#52
Improvement+0.0#123

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#40
First Shot+5.8#42
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#148
Layup/Dunks+7.4#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#318
Freethrows+3.1#30
Improvement+0.0#171

Defense
Total Defense+10.3#6
First Shot+7.0#27
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#22
Layups/Dunks+1.0#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#9
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement+0.0#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.4%
#1 Seed 11.0% 11.2% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 25.0% 25.6% 7.6%
Top 4 Seed 54.9% 55.7% 31.3%
Top 6 Seed 77.5% 78.2% 53.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.6% 95.9% 85.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.8% 95.1% 84.2%
Average Seed 4.4 4.3 5.7
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 93.6% 84.6%
Conference Champion 21.5% 21.8% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.5% 1.4% 2.0%
First Round95.0% 95.3% 84.7%
Second Round76.5% 77.0% 59.3%
Sweet Sixteen45.7% 46.2% 30.1%
Elite Eight23.6% 24.0% 13.0%
Final Four11.4% 11.6% 5.7%
Championship Game5.3% 5.4% 2.4%
National Champion2.4% 2.4% 1.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 25 - 111 - 7
Quad 36 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 303   North Dakota St. W 76-58 99%     1 - 0 +7.2 -6.6 +12.9
  Nov 11, 2022 177   Fordham W 74-48 96%     2 - 0 +22.7 -0.1 +22.0
  Nov 16, 2022 141   South Dakota St. W 71-56 94%     3 - 0 +14.0 -10.7 +22.9
  Nov 21, 2022 210   Louisville W 80-54 95%     4 - 0 +23.6 +8.1 +15.3
  Nov 22, 2022 8   Creighton L 87-90 46%     4 - 1 +14.5 +11.8 +3.0
  Nov 23, 2022 25   San Diego St. W 78-74 OT 60%     5 - 1 +17.8 +1.8 +15.3
  Nov 28, 2022 156   Troy W 74-61 95%     6 - 1 +10.9 +2.6 +8.7
  Dec 03, 2022 185   San Jose St. W 79-59 97%    
  Dec 06, 2022 223   UNC Greensboro W 77-54 98%    
  Dec 10, 2022 38   Oklahoma W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 17, 2022 115   Bradley W 76-60 93%    
  Dec 21, 2022 199   UNC Asheville W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 28, 2022 62   @ LSU W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 04, 2023 48   Missouri W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 29   @ Auburn W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 11, 2023 13   Alabama W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 14, 2023 88   @ Vanderbilt W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 18, 2023 48   @ Missouri W 83-79 63%    
  Jan 21, 2023 64   Mississippi W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 24, 2023 62   LSU W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 28, 2023 19   @ Baylor L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 31, 2023 56   Texas A&M W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 04, 2023 232   @ South Carolina W 77-60 94%    
  Feb 07, 2023 17   @ Kentucky L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 28   Mississippi St. W 67-60 72%    
  Feb 15, 2023 56   @ Texas A&M W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 67   Florida W 81-70 85%    
  Feb 21, 2023 123   Georgia W 76-60 93%    
  Feb 25, 2023 13   @ Alabama L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 28, 2023 5   @ Tennessee L 64-69 33%    
  Mar 04, 2023 17   Kentucky W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7 7.0 5.3 2.5 0.6 21.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.5 7.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 6.1 6.5 1.9 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.7 1.7 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.8 1.7 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.8 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.2 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.2 9.4 13.0 15.5 16.0 13.8 10.5 5.8 2.6 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.6% 2.5    2.4 0.2
16-2 91.0% 5.3    4.2 1.1 0.0
15-3 66.5% 7.0    3.9 2.6 0.4
14-4 33.8% 4.7    1.4 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.1% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 12.6 6.7 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.6% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.8% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.6 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-3 10.5% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.1 3.2 4.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.8% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.8 1.7 4.2 4.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.0% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 3.6 0.6 2.3 4.5 5.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.5% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 4.7 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.6 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.0% 99.6% 11.4% 88.2% 5.8 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.5 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-8 9.4% 97.3% 10.1% 87.2% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.0%
9-9 6.2% 90.9% 8.7% 82.2% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.6 90.1%
8-10 3.5% 67.0% 6.6% 60.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 64.7%
7-11 1.8% 37.0% 4.8% 32.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 33.8%
6-12 0.9% 11.2% 4.5% 6.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.0%
5-13 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 95.6% 15.3% 80.3% 4.4 11.0 14.0 14.6 15.3 12.5 10.0 6.9 4.5 3.1 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 94.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 79.5 20.5