Alabama
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#12
Expected Predictive Rating+19.9#8
Pace78.3#21
Improvement-0.1#269

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#22
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebound+6.2#3
Layup/Dunks+2.1#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#100
Freethrows+1.2#109
Improvement+0.0#158

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#13
First Shot+7.9#21
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#121
Layups/Dunks+4.0#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#37
Freethrows-1.5#264
Improvement-0.1#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.1% 4.2% 1.2%
#1 Seed 16.8% 17.3% 6.1%
Top 2 Seed 36.2% 37.2% 15.5%
Top 4 Seed 67.6% 68.8% 42.9%
Top 6 Seed 85.1% 86.0% 66.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.7% 97.1% 90.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 96.5% 89.0%
Average Seed 3.7 3.6 5.1
.500 or above 98.6% 98.9% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 93.5% 86.1%
Conference Champion 20.1% 20.6% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 3.0%
First Round96.2% 96.5% 88.7%
Second Round81.0% 81.8% 64.9%
Sweet Sixteen50.4% 51.3% 32.6%
Elite Eight26.3% 27.0% 13.7%
Final Four13.2% 13.5% 6.2%
Championship Game6.5% 6.6% 3.7%
National Champion3.1% 3.2% 1.9%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 25 - 113 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 44 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 181   Longwood W 75-54 96%     1 - 0 +17.4 -8.0 +23.1
  Nov 11, 2022 128   Liberty W 95-59 93%     2 - 0 +35.8 +18.1 +16.4
  Nov 15, 2022 144   @ South Alabama W 65-55 87%     3 - 0 +14.6 -7.8 +21.9
  Nov 18, 2022 219   Jacksonville St. W 104-62 97%     4 - 0 +35.8 +28.3 +7.9
  Nov 24, 2022 36   Michigan St. W 81-70 71%     5 - 0 +21.8 +10.3 +11.2
  Nov 25, 2022 2   Connecticut L 67-82 36%     5 - 1 +5.3 +0.4 +5.7
  Nov 27, 2022 23   North Carolina W 103-101 4OT 59%     6 - 1 +16.2 +2.9 +12.7
  Dec 03, 2022 140   South Dakota St. W 86-68 95%    
  Dec 10, 2022 1   @ Houston L 62-70 24%    
  Dec 13, 2022 31   Memphis W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 16, 2022 9   Gonzaga L 83-84 46%    
  Dec 20, 2022 309   Jackson St. W 89-61 99%    
  Dec 28, 2022 26   @ Mississippi St. W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 03, 2023 64   Mississippi W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 07, 2023 18   @ Kentucky L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 11, 2023 15   @ Arkansas L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 14, 2023 62   LSU W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 17, 2023 88   @ Vanderbilt W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 21, 2023 51   @ Missouri W 86-82 64%    
  Jan 25, 2023 26   Mississippi St. W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 28, 2023 40   @ Oklahoma W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 31, 2023 88   Vanderbilt W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 04, 2023 62   @ LSU W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 08, 2023 66   Florida W 84-73 84%    
  Feb 11, 2023 29   @ Auburn W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 15, 2023 5   @ Tennessee L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 124   Georgia W 79-62 93%    
  Feb 22, 2023 231   @ South Carolina W 79-62 93%    
  Feb 25, 2023 15   Arkansas W 77-74 61%    
  Mar 01, 2023 29   Auburn W 76-69 72%    
  Mar 04, 2023 56   @ Texas A&M W 78-74 66%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.4 6.4 5.2 2.3 0.4 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.8 7.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.2 6.6 2.1 0.2 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.6 5.8 1.7 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.8 1.5 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.2 5.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.5 9.6 12.9 15.5 16.4 14.0 9.8 5.7 2.3 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.1% 2.3    2.2 0.1
16-2 90.2% 5.2    4.0 1.1 0.1
15-3 65.3% 6.4    3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 31.4% 4.4    1.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.7% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 11.8 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.3% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.7% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.4 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.8% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 1.7 4.7 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 14.0% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.1 3.9 5.8 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.4% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.8 1.7 4.7 5.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.5% 100.0% 14.6% 85.3% 3.6 0.5 2.2 4.5 4.7 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.9% 99.8% 12.5% 87.3% 4.7 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 9.6% 99.2% 9.6% 89.5% 5.8 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.5 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
9-9 6.5% 95.2% 8.5% 86.7% 7.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 94.7%
8-10 3.7% 78.4% 7.2% 71.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 76.7%
7-11 1.9% 51.3% 9.7% 41.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 46.1%
6-12 0.8% 13.6% 2.6% 11.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 11.3%
5-13 0.3% 14.3% 12.7% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8%
4-14 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.7% 16.0% 80.7% 3.7 16.8 19.4 17.2 14.2 10.6 6.9 4.2 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 96.1%