Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#61
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#77
Pace65.6#262
Improvement+0.0#145

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#193
First Shot-1.7#229
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#119
Layup/Dunks+3.6#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#207
Freethrows-0.9#231
Improvement-0.2#266

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#11
First Shot+5.8#38
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#21
Layups/Dunks+0.4#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#61
Freethrows+0.8#144
Improvement+0.1#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.3% 5.4% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.0% 46.4% 26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.1% 39.5% 20.2%
Average Seed 9.4 9.0 9.9
.500 or above 89.5% 95.2% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 78.9% 68.2%
Conference Champion 9.0% 11.3% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.5%
First Four5.9% 6.7% 5.2%
First Round32.9% 42.9% 23.9%
Second Round13.7% 18.8% 9.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 5.2% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.7% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Neutral) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 5
Quad 25 - 38 - 8
Quad 35 - 312 - 11
Quad 46 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 141   South Dakota St. L 66-68 81%     0 - 1 -3.0 -9.9 +6.9
  Nov 12, 2022 51   Washington St. W 71-61 46%     1 - 1 +19.5 +0.5 +18.7
  Nov 17, 2022 124   Charlotte L 42-54 69%     1 - 2 -8.8 -22.9 +12.7
  Nov 18, 2022 171   Loyola Chicago W 70-48 79%     2 - 2 +21.9 +4.4 +19.1
  Nov 20, 2022 44   Colorado W 68-55 43%     3 - 2 +23.1 +2.8 +20.6
  Nov 26, 2022 182   Utah Valley W 87-69 87%     4 - 2 +14.4 +14.7 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2022 299   Cal St. Northridge W 55-46 95%     5 - 2 -1.7 -14.3 +14.0
  Dec 03, 2022 56   Texas A&M L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 10, 2022 46   @ Saint Louis L 65-70 33%    
  Dec 13, 2022 337   New Orleans W 80-57 99%    
  Dec 18, 2022 301   Oakland W 78-59 96%    
  Dec 22, 2022 103   @ Santa Clara W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 28, 2022 69   @ Nevada L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 03, 2023 185   San Jose St. W 68-56 86%    
  Jan 07, 2023 34   Utah St. W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 11, 2023 78   @ UNLV L 61-63 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 146   @ Wyoming W 64-60 64%    
  Jan 17, 2023 69   Nevada W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 20, 2023 57   @ New Mexico L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 24, 2023 154   Fresno St. W 62-52 82%    
  Jan 28, 2023 72   Colorado St. W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 31, 2023 219   @ Air Force W 62-53 78%    
  Feb 03, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 11, 2023 146   Wyoming W 67-57 82%    
  Feb 15, 2023 72   @ Colorado St. L 61-63 41%    
  Feb 19, 2023 78   UNLV W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 22, 2023 57   New Mexico W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 25, 2023 185   @ San Jose St. W 65-59 70%    
  Feb 28, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 63-65 41%    
  Mar 04, 2023 34   @ Utah St. L 66-72 31%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.7 2.7 0.6 0.1 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.8 2.5 0.3 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.5 2.7 0.2 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.9 1.3 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.7 7.3 10.4 12.8 14.4 14.1 12.2 9.0 5.7 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.7% 1.4    1.2 0.2
15-3 81.6% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.0
14-4 47.4% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 17.8% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 4.8 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.4% 100.0% 26.3% 73.8% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.2% 97.6% 22.3% 75.3% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.8%
14-4 5.7% 91.1% 19.0% 72.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.5 89.0%
13-5 9.0% 80.1% 16.6% 63.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 1.8 76.2%
12-6 12.2% 61.2% 13.0% 48.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.7 55.3%
11-7 14.1% 39.1% 9.3% 29.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.6 32.8%
10-8 14.4% 21.6% 7.4% 14.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.3 15.3%
9-9 12.8% 10.6% 6.1% 4.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.4 4.8%
8-10 10.4% 5.8% 5.1% 0.6% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.7%
7-11 7.3% 4.0% 3.8% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0 0.1%
6-12 4.7% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6 0.1%
5-13 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.6
4-14 1.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 36.0% 9.7% 26.3% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.8 4.7 6.3 8.1 7.2 2.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 64.0 29.1%