Akron
Mid-American
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#137
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#133
Pace58.6#358
Improvement-0.1#180

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#153
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#193
Layup/Dunks-1.7#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#107
Freethrows+1.6#85
Improvement-0.3#308

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#127
First Shot+1.0#149
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#150
Layups/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#201
Freethrows+1.8#83
Improvement+0.2#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 10.4% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 78.3% 80.8% 55.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 85.1% 75.0%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.7% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 1.5%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.9%
First Round9.8% 10.2% 6.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 46 - 10
Quad 411 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 141   South Dakota St. W 81-80 OT 63%     1 - 0 +0.0 +2.3 -2.4
  Nov 11, 2022 28   Mississippi St. L 54-73 16%     1 - 1 -6.1 -2.3 -5.6
  Nov 15, 2022 262   Morgan St. W 65-59 84%     2 - 1 -2.1 -4.8 +3.2
  Nov 21, 2022 129   Western Kentucky W 72-53 48%     3 - 1 +21.8 +12.7 +12.8
  Nov 22, 2022 62   LSU L 58-73 28%     3 - 2 -6.7 -2.1 -6.4
  Nov 23, 2022 69   Nevada L 58-62 30%     3 - 3 +3.9 -5.6 +9.0
  Nov 30, 2022 94   @ Marshall L 57-68 28%     3 - 4 -2.7 -12.9 +10.4
  Dec 11, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 72-58 90%    
  Dec 14, 2022 144   Wright St. W 69-65 63%    
  Dec 19, 2022 258   Maine W 68-58 83%    
  Dec 22, 2022 115   @ Bradley L 59-63 34%    
  Jan 03, 2023 266   Northern Illinois W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 07, 2023 186   @ Ball St. W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 10, 2023 271   @ Bowling Green W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 14, 2023 263   Eastern Michigan W 73-62 83%    
  Jan 17, 2023 244   @ Central Michigan W 68-65 62%    
  Jan 21, 2023 312   @ Western Michigan W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 24, 2023 286   Miami (OH) W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 28, 2023 157   Ohio W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 31, 2023 190   @ Buffalo W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 54   Kent St. L 61-65 35%    
  Feb 07, 2023 102   Toledo W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 157   @ Ohio L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 14, 2023 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 190   Buffalo W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 21, 2023 102   @ Toledo L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 312   Western Michigan W 72-58 90%    
  Feb 28, 2023 186   Ball St. W 69-63 70%    
  Mar 03, 2023 54   @ Kent St. L 58-68 19%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.1 5.2 2.2 0.3 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.8 8.1 5.2 1.3 0.1 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.9 7.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.2 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.4 7.2 10.8 13.3 15.1 14.9 12.7 8.8 5.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.1
16-2 86.5% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 57.1% 3.0    1.6 1.2 0.2
14-4 26.6% 2.3    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 4.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 68.7% 43.3% 25.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.7%
17-1 0.7% 50.9% 38.6% 12.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 20.1%
16-2 2.4% 31.3% 29.0% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 3.3%
15-3 5.3% 21.7% 21.3% 0.4% 12.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.1 0.5%
14-4 8.8% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.4 0.0%
13-5 12.7% 12.9% 12.9% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 11.0
12-6 14.9% 11.0% 11.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 13.3
11-7 15.1% 7.8% 7.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 13.9
10-8 13.3% 6.1% 6.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 12.5
9-9 10.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 10.2
8-10 7.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 6.9
7-11 4.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.0% 9.8% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.5 0.8 90.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.7 16.0 8.0 16.0 4.0 16.0 8.0 8.0 24.0