Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#155
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#306
Pace61.1#345
Improvement+0.1#98

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#282
First Shot-3.6#286
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#174
Layup/Dunks-1.8#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#287
Freethrows-0.9#227
Improvement+0.0#180

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#63
First Shot+3.4#73
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#137
Layups/Dunks+5.4#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#129
Freethrows-2.0#286
Improvement+0.1#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 3.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.7 13.8 15.0
.500 or above 10.0% 24.3% 7.8%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 32.8% 19.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 18.1% 11.3% 19.1%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.9%
First Round1.5% 2.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 13.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 33 - 55 - 17
Quad 45 - 210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 163   UC Santa Barbara L 54-61 52%     0 - 1 -6.7 -11.7 +4.2
  Nov 16, 2022 83   San Francisco L 60-67 40%     0 - 2 -3.6 -10.4 +6.7
  Nov 19, 2022 82   @ North Texas L 52-61 20%     0 - 3 +0.5 -4.4 +3.2
  Nov 23, 2022 97   Washington L 57-62 34%     0 - 4 +0.1 -11.5 +11.6
  Nov 24, 2022 88   Vanderbilt L 59-67 31%     0 - 5 -2.0 -6.7 +4.1
  Dec 03, 2022 49   @ UC Irvine L 53-65 13%    
  Dec 07, 2022 298   Cal St. Northridge W 65-54 86%    
  Dec 12, 2022 212   @ Pacific W 66-65 52%    
  Dec 17, 2022 261   Sacramento St. W 66-57 79%    
  Dec 20, 2022 265   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 57-54 60%    
  Dec 28, 2022 148   Wyoming W 62-60 58%    
  Dec 31, 2022 48   @ Utah St. L 62-74 14%    
  Jan 03, 2023 55   New Mexico L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 07, 2023 74   @ Colorado St. L 56-66 19%    
  Jan 10, 2023 183   @ San Jose St. L 60-61 45%    
  Jan 14, 2023 225   Air Force W 60-53 74%    
  Jan 21, 2023 77   UNLV L 59-62 38%    
  Jan 24, 2023 63   @ Boise St. L 52-62 18%    
  Jan 28, 2023 48   Utah St. L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 31, 2023 148   @ Wyoming L 59-63 38%    
  Feb 03, 2023 77   @ UNLV L 56-65 21%    
  Feb 07, 2023 183   San Jose St. W 63-58 66%    
  Feb 10, 2023 69   @ Nevada L 59-69 18%    
  Feb 15, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 57-67 20%    
  Feb 18, 2023 74   Colorado St. L 59-63 38%    
  Feb 21, 2023 225   @ Air Force W 57-56 54%    
  Feb 24, 2023 69   Nevada L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 28, 2023 55   @ New Mexico L 62-73 16%    
  Mar 04, 2023 357   Chicago St. W 75-55 96%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.1 1.6 0.1 12.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.7 6.5 6.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 18.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.0 5.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.1 6.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 16.1 10th
11th 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.2 11th
Total 0.4 1.8 4.5 8.2 11.4 13.8 14.2 13.2 11.0 8.5 5.8 3.7 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 80.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 51.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 40.0% 16.0% 24.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.6%
14-4 0.4% 18.8% 15.0% 3.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.4%
13-5 1.1% 4.8% 4.4% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.5%
12-6 1.8% 7.4% 7.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7
11-7 3.7% 5.5% 5.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.5
10-8 5.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6
9-9 8.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.2
8-10 11.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.8
7-11 13.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.0
6-12 14.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.0
5-13 13.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.7
4-14 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.4
3-15 8.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.2
2-16 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
1-17 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.3 0.1%