Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#204
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#209
Pace66.6#234
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#264
First Shot-2.4#255
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#217
Layup/Dunks+0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#222
Freethrows-0.7#221
Improvement-0.2#263

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#145
First Shot+1.6#125
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#225
Layups/Dunks+1.0#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#251
Freethrows+1.6#96
Improvement+0.0#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 41.5% 62.6% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 44.3% 55.0% 41.1%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 2.3% 5.2%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round1.7% 2.9% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 269   NC Central W 79-74 OT 74%     1 - 0 -3.5 -6.3 +2.2
  Nov 15, 2022 210   @ Louisville W 61-60 41%     2 - 0 +1.6 -4.5 +6.2
  Nov 18, 2022 195   Campbell L 58-63 60%     2 - 1 -9.5 -10.5 +0.5
  Nov 19, 2022 215   Kennesaw St. L 67-71 65%     2 - 2 -9.8 -6.6 -3.5
  Nov 20, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 83-74 74%     3 - 2 +0.4 -1.6 +1.2
  Nov 23, 2022 238   @ East Tennessee St. W 74-70 47%     4 - 2 +3.1 +2.3 +0.9
  Nov 29, 2022 86   Furman L 61-65 32%     4 - 3 -0.8 -13.8 +13.0
  Dec 02, 2022 124   @ Charlotte L 56-64 23%    
  Dec 14, 2022 66   @ Wake Forest L 65-78 11%    
  Dec 21, 2022 164   UC Santa Barbara L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 29, 2022 94   @ Marshall L 67-77 18%    
  Dec 31, 2022 109   @ Southern Miss L 59-68 21%    
  Jan 05, 2023 240   Coastal Carolina W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 07, 2023 60   @ James Madison L 64-77 11%    
  Jan 12, 2023 292   Georgia Southern W 69-61 78%    
  Jan 14, 2023 156   Troy W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 19, 2023 240   @ Coastal Carolina L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 21, 2023 147   @ Old Dominion L 61-67 29%    
  Jan 26, 2023 205   Georgia St. W 65-62 60%    
  Jan 28, 2023 272   Arkansas St. W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 02, 2023 94   Marshall L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 04, 2023 60   James Madison L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 09, 2023 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 11, 2023 148   @ South Alabama L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 16, 2023 167   Texas St. W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 147   Old Dominion L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 22, 2023 205   @ Georgia St. L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 24, 2023 292   @ Georgia Southern W 66-64 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.1 0.2 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.5 1.2 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.5 2.3 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.8 4.3 0.7 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.1 1.3 0.1 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.5 1.7 0.1 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.8 7.8 11.3 13.7 14.4 13.5 11.5 8.3 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 76.1% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 29.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.2% 13.3% 13.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 10.8% 10.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.6% 7.5% 7.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.0% 6.7% 6.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8
12-6 5.5% 4.8% 4.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2
11-7 8.3% 3.3% 3.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
10-8 11.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.2
9-9 13.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 13.2
8-10 14.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.2
7-11 13.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.5
6-12 11.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.2
5-13 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 2.6% 2.6
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 98.0 0.0%