UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#138
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#49
Pace64.5#287
Improvement-0.1#150

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#176
First Shot-1.5#220
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#99
Layup/Dunks-4.3#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#313
Freethrows+4.9#8
Improvement-0.2#269

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#111
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#57
Layups/Dunks-1.0#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#63
Freethrows-3.6#339
Improvement+0.1#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 14.1% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 95.6% 97.6% 89.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 97.2% 94.3%
Conference Champion 19.0% 20.9% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round12.4% 13.8% 8.3%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 12 - 5
Quad 35 - 36 - 8
Quad 413 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 56-69 9%     0 - 1 +4.2 -5.9 +8.9
  Nov 15, 2022 38   @ Oklahoma L 53-74 14%     0 - 2 -7.3 -3.8 -6.6
  Nov 18, 2022 2   @ Connecticut L 50-86 3%     0 - 3 -12.2 -8.0 -6.6
  Nov 25, 2022 112   Missouri St. W 68-54 43%     1 - 3 +17.9 +3.3 +15.7
  Nov 26, 2022 196   Vermont W 68-66 64%     2 - 3 +0.4 -0.9 +1.5
  Nov 27, 2022 82   North Texas W 55-51 33%     3 - 3 +10.6 -0.5 +12.0
  Nov 30, 2022 240   @ Coastal Carolina W 60-58 62%     4 - 3 +1.1 -8.9 +10.1
  Dec 06, 2022 207   East Carolina W 71-64 75%    
  Dec 10, 2022 136   Jacksonville W 60-57 60%    
  Dec 18, 2022 201   High Point W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 21, 2022 195   @ Campbell W 64-63 52%    
  Dec 28, 2022 329   @ Monmouth W 72-62 83%    
  Dec 31, 2022 334   Hampton W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 04, 2023 346   @ Elon W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 07, 2023 274   @ N.C. A&T W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 11, 2023 81   College of Charleston L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 287   William & Mary W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 16, 2023 346   Elon W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 19, 2023 131   @ Hofstra L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 343   @ Stony Brook W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 26, 2023 329   Monmouth W 75-59 93%    
  Feb 02, 2023 274   N.C. A&T W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 287   @ William & Mary W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 08, 2023 81   @ College of Charleston L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 11, 2023 257   Northeastern W 68-58 81%    
  Feb 16, 2023 173   @ Drexel L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 18, 2023 176   @ Delaware L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 23, 2023 343   Stony Brook W 75-57 94%    
  Feb 25, 2023 118   Towson W 65-64 55%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.5 6.1 2.5 0.5 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.8 8.5 5.1 0.9 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.8 8.8 4.4 0.5 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.8 7.6 3.5 0.4 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.5 7.8 11.9 16.2 18.0 16.1 12.1 7.0 2.5 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.7% 2.5    2.3 0.1
16-2 87.5% 6.1    4.3 1.7 0.1
15-3 54.3% 6.5    2.7 3.0 0.7 0.1
14-4 17.8% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 10.4 6.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 68.2% 46.0% 22.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 41.1%
17-1 2.5% 38.9% 32.8% 6.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 9.0%
16-2 7.0% 26.7% 25.5% 1.2% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 1.6%
15-3 12.1% 20.6% 20.5% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 9.6 0.2%
14-4 16.1% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 13.8 0.0%
13-5 18.0% 11.4% 11.4% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 15.9
12-6 16.2% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 14.8
11-7 11.9% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.3
10-8 7.8% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.5
9-9 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.3
8-10 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.3% 0.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.4 3.5 1.2 0.3 87.4 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 87.0% 8.8 3.3 12.0 10.9 12.0 12.0 10.9 21.7 4.3