USC
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#73
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#101
Pace69.9#146
Improvement-0.1#155

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#97
First Shot+3.3#83
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#228
Layup/Dunks+1.9#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement+0.1#103

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#51
First Shot+2.6#94
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#42
Layups/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#160
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement-0.1#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 17.2% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.4% 14.2% 5.3%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 11.1
.500 or above 62.5% 65.3% 36.8%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 42.3% 16.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.0% 6.8%
First Four4.0% 4.2% 2.3%
First Round14.3% 15.1% 6.7%
Second Round5.8% 6.3% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 12
Quad 34 - 210 - 14
Quad 47 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 101   Florida Gulf Coast L 61-74 71%     0 - 1 -11.1 -13.1 +2.3
  Nov 10, 2022 355   Alabama St. W 96-58 98%     1 - 1 +20.2 +8.0 +8.8
  Nov 15, 2022 196   Vermont W 59-57 87%     2 - 1 -2.6 -14.3 +11.8
  Nov 18, 2022 239   Mount St. Mary's W 83-74 91%     3 - 1 +2.1 +2.2 -0.7
  Nov 23, 2022 87   BYU W 82-76 56%     4 - 1 +12.2 +6.0 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2022 5   Tennessee L 66-73 OT 15%     4 - 2 +11.5 +3.2 +8.7
  Nov 25, 2022 35   Wisconsin L 59-64 37%     4 - 3 +6.0 +2.5 +2.8
  Nov 30, 2022 231   @ California W 66-51 78%     5 - 3 +14.3 +2.9 +13.3
  Dec 04, 2022 217   Oregon St. W 74-60 90%    
  Dec 07, 2022 211   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-61 89%    
  Dec 14, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 77-67 83%    
  Dec 18, 2022 29   Auburn L 67-69 41%    
  Dec 21, 2022 72   Colorado St. L 67-68 50%    
  Dec 30, 2022 91   @ Washington L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 01, 2023 51   @ Washington St. L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 05, 2023 9   @ UCLA L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 12, 2023 44   Colorado W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 14, 2023 70   Utah W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 19, 2023 6   @ Arizona L 75-89 11%    
  Jan 21, 2023 40   @ Arizona St. L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 26, 2023 9   UCLA L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 02, 2023 51   Washington St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 91   Washington W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 09, 2023 50   @ Oregon L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 11, 2023 217   @ Oregon St. W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 16, 2023 231   California W 70-56 90%    
  Feb 18, 2023 79   Stanford W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 23, 2023 44   @ Colorado L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 25, 2023 70   @ Utah L 66-69 39%    
  Mar 02, 2023 6   Arizona L 78-86 25%    
  Mar 04, 2023 40   Arizona St. W 67-66 50%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 9 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.4 3.8 0.5 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 15.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 13.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 12.1 14.8 14.7 13.7 10.6 7.3 4.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 47.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 98.9% 15.3% 83.6% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
15-5 1.0% 98.0% 6.6% 91.4% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
14-6 2.1% 89.6% 7.9% 81.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 88.7%
13-7 4.7% 72.3% 6.5% 65.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.3 70.3%
12-8 7.3% 50.5% 5.3% 45.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.6 47.7%
11-9 10.6% 26.1% 4.3% 21.8% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 7.8 22.7%
10-10 13.7% 11.9% 4.4% 7.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.0 7.9%
9-11 14.7% 4.5% 3.2% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.0 1.3%
8-12 14.8% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.5 0.0%
7-13 12.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.9
6-14 8.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.8
5-15 5.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.3
4-16 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.2% 3.3% 12.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.5 3.5 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 83.8 13.4%