Marquette
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#22
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#38
Pace76.7#33
Improvement+0.3#16

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#26
First Shot+8.7#13
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#269
Layup/Dunks+7.2#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#54
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+0.3#13

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#37
First Shot+6.1#39
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#120
Layups/Dunks+6.9#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#273
Freethrows+1.3#123
Improvement+0.0#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.5% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 5.8% 7.2% 2.1%
Top 4 Seed 22.2% 26.4% 11.2%
Top 6 Seed 45.6% 51.4% 30.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.6% 88.4% 74.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.3% 86.6% 71.5%
Average Seed 6.3 6.0 7.2
.500 or above 97.4% 98.6% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 92.1% 86.6%
Conference Champion 12.4% 13.7% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four3.9% 3.3% 5.6%
First Round83.0% 87.0% 72.4%
Second Round57.0% 61.5% 45.3%
Sweet Sixteen27.1% 29.9% 19.6%
Elite Eight12.0% 13.6% 7.9%
Final Four5.2% 6.0% 3.2%
Championship Game2.2% 2.5% 1.3%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.5%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 35 - 116 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 211   Radford W 79-69 96%     1 - 0 +4.4 -6.2 +9.3
  Nov 10, 2022 243   Central Michigan W 97-73 97%     2 - 0 +16.9 +7.3 +6.1
  Nov 15, 2022 3   @ Purdue L 70-75 21%     2 - 1 +17.7 +10.0 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2022 351   LIU Brooklyn W 95-58 99%     3 - 1 +20.5 +3.4 +12.3
  Nov 21, 2022 26   Mississippi St. L 55-58 55%     3 - 2 +10.2 -3.1 +13.1
  Nov 23, 2022 108   Georgia Tech W 84-60 83%     4 - 2 +28.1 +13.6 +14.1
  Nov 26, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 82-68 99%     5 - 2 -5.2 -9.6 +3.4
  Nov 29, 2022 20   Baylor W 96-70 60%     6 - 2 +37.7 +24.7 +13.2
  Dec 03, 2022 34   Wisconsin W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 06, 2022 263   NC Central W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 11, 2022 78   @ Notre Dame W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 16, 2022 10   Creighton W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 20, 2022 92   @ Providence W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 27, 2022 68   Seton Hall W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 31, 2022 79   @ Villanova W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 03, 2023 43   @ St. John's W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 178   Georgetown W 87-69 95%    
  Jan 11, 2023 2   Connecticut L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 15, 2023 28   @ Xavier L 79-81 43%    
  Jan 18, 2023 92   Providence W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 21, 2023 68   @ Seton Hall W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 116   @ DePaul W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 01, 2023 79   Villanova W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 54   Butler W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 07, 2023 2   @ Connecticut L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 11, 2023 178   @ Georgetown W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 15, 2023 28   Xavier W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 21, 2023 10   @ Creighton L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 25, 2023 116   DePaul W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 28, 2023 54   @ Butler W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 04, 2023 43   St. John's W 84-77 74%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.2 3.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.9 7.0 4.7 1.6 0.2 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 7.7 7.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 23.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 18.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.5 7.6 10.5 13.6 14.7 14.4 12.4 8.5 5.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 94.0% 2.5    2.1 0.4
17-3 69.3% 3.7    2.3 1.3 0.1
16-4 37.7% 3.2    1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 13.6% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 7.0 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
18-2 2.6% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 2.0 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 100.0%
17-3 5.4% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 2.9 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-4 8.5% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 3.8 0.2 0.7 2.5 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 3.9 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.4% 99.3% 13.5% 85.8% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 14.7% 98.0% 12.0% 86.0% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 4.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.8%
12-8 13.6% 91.1% 10.5% 80.6% 8.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 90.1%
11-9 10.5% 76.4% 7.5% 68.9% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.5 74.5%
10-10 7.6% 57.3% 8.2% 49.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 53.5%
9-11 4.5% 25.7% 7.7% 18.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 19.5%
8-12 2.6% 7.2% 4.5% 2.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.9%
7-13 1.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 84.6% 13.1% 71.6% 6.3 2.0 3.8 7.0 9.4 11.4 12.0 11.0 9.8 7.1 5.6 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 15.4 82.3%