Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#186
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#207
Pace71.8#105
Improvement-0.2#202

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#151
First Shot-1.1#205
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#72
Layup/Dunks+3.0#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#287
Freethrows+1.4#96
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#223
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#300
Layups/Dunks-0.6#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#200
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-0.1#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.7% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 67.1% 83.6% 61.0%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 74.1% 60.4%
Conference Champion 3.9% 6.0% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.7% 3.6%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round3.7% 5.5% 3.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 133   @ Indiana St. L 71-83 27%     0 - 1 -6.4 -1.4 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2022 289   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-61 62%     1 - 1 +6.2 -7.7 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2022 196   Vermont L 73-78 53%     1 - 2 -6.6 +4.0 -10.9
  Nov 26, 2022 112   Missouri St. W 67-64 32%     2 - 2 +6.9 +2.0 +5.2
  Nov 27, 2022 185   San Jose St. L 65-67 50%     2 - 3 -2.7 -3.7 +0.8
  Dec 03, 2022 130   @ Duquesne L 72-78 27%    
  Dec 07, 2022 356   @ Eastern Illinois W 76-65 85%    
  Dec 10, 2022 315   Evansville W 74-63 85%    
  Dec 17, 2022 280   Illinois St. W 72-67 69%    
  Dec 21, 2022 292   Georgia Southern W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 28, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 83-65 94%    
  Jan 03, 2023 102   @ Toledo L 78-87 22%    
  Jan 07, 2023 137   Akron L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 10, 2023 157   @ Ohio L 71-76 35%    
  Jan 14, 2023 286   Miami (OH) W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 17, 2023 312   Western Michigan W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 21, 2023 54   @ Kent St. L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 24, 2023 190   Buffalo W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 266   @ Northern Illinois W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 31, 2023 271   @ Bowling Green W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 04, 2023 263   Eastern Michigan W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 07, 2023 244   @ Central Michigan W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 271   Bowling Green W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 14, 2023 266   Northern Illinois W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 18, 2023 312   @ Western Michigan W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 21, 2023 54   Kent St. L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 25, 2023 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 28, 2023 137   @ Akron L 63-69 30%    
  Mar 03, 2023 102   Toledo L 81-84 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.6 6.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 6.0 2.6 0.2 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.5 3.9 5.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 5.1 2.1 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.1 0.2 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.3 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.0 6.7 9.6 12.3 13.2 13.8 12.5 10.3 6.7 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.4% 0.7    0.5 0.2
15-3 58.0% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 26.5% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 28.9% 28.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 21.4% 21.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.2% 13.4% 13.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
14-4 4.3% 11.9% 11.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.8
13-5 6.7% 9.9% 9.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.1
12-6 10.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.7
11-7 12.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.9
10-8 13.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 13.3
9-9 13.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 13.0
8-10 12.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.1
7-11 9.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.5
6-12 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 96.0 0.0%