Conference USA
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 Louisiana Tech 42.5%   13   18 - 8 11 - 3 20 - 8 13 - 3 +6.1      +2.0 120 +4.1 60 64.0 301 +5.5 101 +6.6 1
118 Liberty 21.2%   14 - 11 6 - 7 16 - 12 8 - 8 +3.5      +2.7 106 +0.8 147 62.8 327 +2.0 134 -2.0 4
140 Western Kentucky 13.2%   16 - 9 8 - 6 17 - 10 9 - 7 +1.7      -0.5 193 +2.2 110 85.2 1 +1.8 137 +0.2 3
151 Sam Houston St. 10.5%   15 - 11 10 - 3 17 - 12 12 - 4 +1.0      -1.1 211 +2.1 114 68.4 184 +2.3 129 +6.2 2
182 Jacksonville St. 5.0%   11 - 15 6 - 8 12 - 16 7 - 9 -1.3      -2.6 246 +1.3 134 63.3 325 -3.4 234 -2.3 6
188 UTEP 4.4%   11 - 15 5 - 9 12 - 16 6 - 10 -1.7      -5.1 302 +3.4 78 73.5 55 -2.7 220 -4.2 8
265 Middle Tennessee 1.2%   10 - 16 6 - 7 11 - 18 7 - 9 -5.2      -5.3 307 +0.1 167 63.4 317 -3.7 239 -2.3 5
272 Florida International 1.1%   8 - 19 4 - 9 9 - 21 5 - 11 -5.5      -2.9 257 -2.7 253 74.5 47 -7.0 290 -5.2 9
276 New Mexico St. 0.9%   7 - 18 5 - 9 8 - 19 6 - 10 -5.8      -4.2 284 -1.6 222 65.9 256 -4.2 243 -3.3 7






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Louisiana Tech 1.1 86.5 13.5
Liberty 3.7 46.6 43.8 6.1 1.5 1.8 0.1
Western Kentucky 3.1 1.0 85.4 13.6
Sam Houston St. 1.8 24.3 75.7
Jacksonville St. 5.0 2.5 24.8 55.0 11.2 5.7 0.7
UTEP 6.6 5.7 10.6 33.9 27.4 16.1 6.3
Middle Tennessee 5.5 2.3 15.7 25.4 45.1 11.2 0.3
Florida International 8.0 0.4 4.0 11.7 9.4 23.4 51.1
New Mexico St. 6.8 2.3 14.2 25.2 24.2 24.5 9.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Louisiana Tech 13 - 3 2.1 26.5 71.4
Liberty 8 - 8 2.6 17.1 42.4 38.0
Western Kentucky 9 - 7 23.8 54.2 22.1
Sam Houston St. 12 - 4 5.3 31.0 51.0 12.7
Jacksonville St. 7 - 9 17.0 58.6 24.4
UTEP 6 - 10 20.8 62.6 16.6
Middle Tennessee 7 - 9 52.6 37.8 9.0 0.7
Florida International 5 - 11 30.2 43.4 22.3 4.2
New Mexico St. 6 - 10 30.9 54.2 14.9




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisiana Tech 86.5% 75.7 10.8
Liberty
Western Kentucky
Sam Houston St. 24.3% 13.5 10.8
Jacksonville St.
UTEP
Middle Tennessee
Florida International
New Mexico St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisiana Tech 42.5% 42.5% 0.0% 13   0.0 3.2 25.0 13.8 0.6 0.0 57.5 0.0%
Liberty 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.6 9.5 6.1 1.8 0.1 78.8 0.0%
Western Kentucky 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 6.4 4.5 0.7 0.0 86.8 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.2 1.9 5.1 3.2 0.2 89.5 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.4 4.5 95.0 0.0%
UTEP 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.4 4.0 95.6 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Florida International 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
New Mexico St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Louisiana Tech 42.5% 0.0% 42.5% 8.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 21.2% 0.0% 21.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 13.2% 0.0% 13.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 10.5% 0.0% 10.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.0% 3.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 4.4% 2.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.1% 1.0 3.9 96.1
2nd Round 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0