Liberty
Conference USA
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#61
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#47
Pace62.6#332
Improvement-4.6#354

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#55
First Shot+4.4#67
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#126
Layup/Dunks+1.1#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#10
Freethrows-1.5#258
Improvement-3.1#354

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+4.1#65
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#263
Layups/Dunks-2.4#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#32
Freethrows-0.7#231
Improvement-1.5#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 2.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.2% 53.2% 54.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.2% 6.2% 14.7%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 12.6
.500 or above 99.6% 99.6% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.0% 90.6%
Conference Champion 64.6% 64.6% 56.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.5% 9.4%
First Round52.4% 52.4% 53.1%
Second Round16.9% 16.9% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.2% 9.4%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 13 - 3
Quad 38 - 311 - 6
Quad 410 - 121 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 131   Charlotte W 71-59 71%     1 - 0 +14.3 +18.2 -1.0
  Nov 16, 2023 122   Furman W 88-74 70%     2 - 0 +16.9 +10.5 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2023 84   Wichita St. W 83-66 58%     3 - 0 +23.1 +10.7 +11.6
  Nov 19, 2023 110   Vermont W 71-61 66%     4 - 0 +13.9 +5.2 +9.6
  Nov 25, 2023 345   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-62 98%     5 - 0 +21.5 +33.2 -7.5
  Nov 30, 2023 13   @ Florida Atlantic L 58-83 17%     5 - 1 -6.5 -1.8 -7.3
  Dec 01, 2023 107   College of Charleston L 67-76 66%     5 - 2 -5.0 -1.0 -4.4
  Dec 05, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 81-50 99.9%   
  Dec 09, 2023 83   Grand Canyon W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 13, 2023 242   Tennessee St. W 79-64 92%    
  Dec 20, 2023 181   @ Utah Valley W 70-64 72%    
  Dec 30, 2023 15   Alabama L 75-82 26%    
  Jan 06, 2024 183   @ Western Kentucky W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 10, 2024 216   Jacksonville St. W 72-58 89%    
  Jan 14, 2024 102   @ Louisiana Tech W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 18, 2024 228   Florida International W 78-64 91%    
  Jan 20, 2024 141   Sam Houston St. W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 27, 2024 216   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 01, 2024 254   @ New Mexico St. W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 03, 2024 175   @ UTEP W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 08, 2024 221   Middle Tennessee W 69-55 89%    
  Feb 10, 2024 102   Louisiana Tech W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 17, 2024 141   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 22, 2024 228   @ Florida International W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 29, 2024 254   New Mexico St. W 79-63 92%    
  Mar 02, 2024 175   UTEP W 73-61 85%    
  Mar 05, 2024 221   @ Middle Tennessee W 66-58 75%    
  Mar 09, 2024 183   Western Kentucky W 78-66 86%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.3 9.3 17.1 16.5 12.6 5.3 64.6 1st
2nd 0.4 3.2 6.5 6.4 3.1 0.7 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.6 7.9 11.8 16.1 20.2 17.2 12.6 5.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 5.3    5.3
15-1 100.0% 12.6    12.4 0.2
14-2 96.1% 16.5    14.8 1.6
13-3 84.8% 17.1    12.5 4.4 0.1 0.0
12-4 57.9% 9.3    5.0 3.7 0.6 0.0
11-5 27.6% 3.3    0.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 6.2% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 64.6% 64.6 50.9 11.8 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 5.3% 93.0% 76.2% 16.8% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 70.6%
15-1 12.6% 77.6% 68.2% 9.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 4.5 1.5 0.1 2.8 29.5%
14-2 17.2% 64.0% 60.0% 4.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 5.6 3.8 0.4 0.0 6.2 9.9%
13-3 20.2% 54.4% 53.1% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 3.7 6.0 1.1 0.1 9.2 2.8%
12-4 16.1% 45.2% 44.9% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 1.3 4.5 1.4 0.1 8.8 0.5%
11-5 11.8% 39.1% 39.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.3 2.6 1.5 0.2 7.2 0.2%
10-6 7.9% 31.8% 31.8% 12.8 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 5.4
9-7 4.6% 30.0% 30.0% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 3.3
8-8 2.3% 18.6% 18.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9
7-9 1.1% 16.3% 16.3% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
6-10 0.6% 14.0% 14.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
5-11 0.2% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 53.2% 50.1% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.5 3.0 16.3 20.0 6.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 46.8 6.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 98.4% 4.0 3.0 12.0 16.7 32.9 22.5 8.8 2.6