Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#182
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#234
Pace63.3#325
Improvement+0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#246
First Shot-5.3#317
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#30
Layup/Dunks+0.6#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#332
Freethrows-1.7#290
Improvement+2.1#72

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#134
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#108
Layups/Dunks-3.3#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#55
Freethrows-1.4#277
Improvement-2.0#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 5.2% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 24.4% 32.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.0% 9.3%
First Four3.2% 3.1% 3.7%
First Round3.7% 4.0% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 32 - 54 - 9
Quad 48 - 712 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 277   Utah Tech L 79-81 OT 76%     0 - 1 -10.5 -0.3 -10.1
  Nov 14, 2023 119   @ West Virginia L 57-70 24%     0 - 2 -6.9 -7.9 -0.1
  Nov 18, 2023 247   @ North Alabama L 59-61 51%     0 - 3 -3.6 -19.8 +16.3
  Nov 22, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word L 66-67 80%     0 - 4 -11.1 -8.9 -2.2
  Nov 24, 2023 254   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-62 53%     1 - 4 +13.0 +4.8 +9.1
  Nov 26, 2023 344   Incarnate Word W 67-65 86%     2 - 4 -10.8 -6.1 -4.5
  Nov 30, 2023 207   South Alabama W 70-52 65%     3 - 4 +12.7 +10.2 +6.6
  Dec 03, 2023 198   East Tennessee St. L 59-61 64%     3 - 5 -7.0 -6.5 -0.7
  Dec 08, 2023 196   Illinois-Chicago L 49-55 64%     3 - 6 -11.0 -18.7 +7.0
  Dec 14, 2023 27   @ Wisconsin L 60-75 7%     3 - 7 +0.5 -2.1 +1.4
  Dec 18, 2023 130   @ Tarleton St. W 65-62 27%     4 - 7 +8.3 +0.2 +8.3
  Dec 21, 2023 211   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 90-60 45%     5 - 7 +30.0 +10.7 +17.5
  Jan 06, 2024 272   Florida International W 70-63 75%     6 - 7 1 - 0 -1.3 -3.5 +2.5
  Jan 10, 2024 118   @ Liberty W 61-51 24%     7 - 7 2 - 0 +16.2 -0.9 +18.5
  Jan 13, 2024 140   @ Western Kentucky L 69-80 29%     7 - 8 2 - 1 -6.6 -1.6 -4.8
  Jan 20, 2024 92   Louisiana Tech L 57-74 32%     7 - 9 2 - 2 -13.6 -5.9 -9.8
  Jan 24, 2024 265   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-75 55%     7 - 10 2 - 3 -10.5 -2.7 -8.0
  Jan 27, 2024 118   Liberty W 73-62 42%     8 - 10 3 - 3 +11.8 +11.7 +1.9
  Feb 01, 2024 188   @ UTEP L 71-79 41%     8 - 11 3 - 4 -7.0 -1.9 -4.5
  Feb 03, 2024 276   @ New Mexico St. L 65-67 57%     8 - 12 3 - 5 -5.0 +2.3 -7.7
  Feb 08, 2024 151   Sam Houston St. W 79-68 52%     9 - 12 4 - 5 +9.2 +9.5 +0.1
  Feb 10, 2024 140   Western Kentucky L 59-70 49%     9 - 13 4 - 6 -12.0 -15.9 +4.5
  Feb 15, 2024 92   @ Louisiana Tech L 58-63 17%     9 - 14 4 - 7 +3.9 -2.7 +6.0
  Feb 21, 2024 265   Middle Tennessee W 76-68 74%     10 - 14 5 - 7 +0.1 +5.7 -5.2
  Feb 24, 2024 272   @ Florida International W 77-75 56%     11 - 14 6 - 7 -0.8 +1.4 -2.3
  Feb 29, 2024 188   UTEP L 65-72 62%     11 - 15 6 - 8 -11.4 -4.9 -6.6
  Mar 02, 2024 276   New Mexico St. W 68-61 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 151   @ Sam Houston St. L 63-68 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 2.5 2.5 3rd
4th 9.1 15.7 24.8 4th
5th 2.5 46.4 6.2 55.0 5th
6th 8.1 3.2 11.2 6th
7th 5.7 5.7 7th
8th 0.7 0.7 8th
9th 9th
Total 17.0 58.6 24.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 24.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.3 1.1 22.9
7-9 58.6% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 2.7 55.8
6-10 17.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.7 16.4
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.4 4.5 95.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.4% 6.1% 15.8 1.4 4.7
Lose Out 17.0% 3.8% 16.0 3.8