Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#272
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#290
Pace74.5#47
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#257
First Shot-1.9#235
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#247
Layup/Dunks+0.9#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#126
Freethrows-1.5#285
Improvement+0.7#139

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#253
First Shot-2.1#252
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#240
Layups/Dunks-1.1#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#272
Freethrows-1.8#296
Improvement-0.7#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 77.3% 52.9% 90.1%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 82 - 15
Quad 47 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 58   @ Central Florida L 62-85 6%     0 - 1 -11.2 -7.6 -1.3
  Nov 09, 2023 130   Tarleton St. L 65-82 30%     0 - 2 -17.2 -14.1 -1.7
  Nov 13, 2023 72   @ Miami (FL) L 80-86 8%     0 - 3 +4.3 +13.7 -9.7
  Nov 15, 2023 357   @ Houston Christian W 83-74 77%     1 - 3 -4.1 -4.7 -0.3
  Nov 19, 2023 104   Akron L 71-77 17%     1 - 4 -1.4 -1.8 +0.6
  Nov 20, 2023 239   Marshall L 69-80 44%     1 - 5 -14.9 -8.7 -5.5
  Nov 21, 2023 157   Loyola Marymount L 60-61 28%     1 - 6 -0.6 -9.9 +9.3
  Nov 26, 2023 255   Kennesaw St. W 91-84 57%     2 - 6 -0.4 +2.8 -4.0
  Nov 29, 2023 210   Florida Gulf Coast L 65-68 50%     2 - 7 -8.4 -9.7 +1.3
  Dec 02, 2023 351   LIU Brooklyn W 74-59 86%     3 - 7 -2.0 -9.8 +6.9
  Dec 13, 2023 34   @ Florida Atlantic L 60-94 4%     3 - 8 -19.6 -10.7 -7.8
  Dec 19, 2023 205   Stetson L 68-80 49%     3 - 9 -17.2 -10.9 -6.3
  Dec 21, 2023 244   Maine W 82-74 55%     4 - 9 +1.2 +8.6 -7.6
  Dec 30, 2023 277   @ Utah Tech L 92-96 OT 40%     4 - 10 -7.1 +1.9 -8.2
  Jan 06, 2024 182   @ Jacksonville St. L 63-70 25%     4 - 11 0 - 1 -5.6 -4.1 -1.8
  Jan 11, 2024 276   New Mexico St. W 77-67 61%     5 - 11 1 - 1 +1.5 +3.1 -1.3
  Jan 13, 2024 188   UTEP W 72-68 45%     6 - 11 2 - 1 -0.4 -1.6 +1.1
  Jan 18, 2024 118   @ Liberty L 69-78 14%     6 - 12 2 - 2 -2.8 +6.6 -10.5
  Jan 25, 2024 140   @ Western Kentucky L 91-105 17%     6 - 13 2 - 3 -9.6 +6.2 -13.3
  Jan 27, 2024 265   @ Middle Tennessee L 61-79 38%     6 - 14 2 - 4 -20.5 -7.3 -14.1
  Feb 01, 2024 92   Louisiana Tech L 53-93 20%     6 - 15 2 - 5 -36.6 -15.0 -23.1
  Feb 03, 2024 151   Sam Houston St. W 68-61 36%     7 - 15 3 - 5 +5.2 +0.6 +5.2
  Feb 10, 2024 265   Middle Tennessee L 66-68 59%     7 - 16 3 - 6 -9.9 -8.5 -1.4
  Feb 15, 2024 151   @ Sam Houston St. L 56-70 19%     7 - 17 3 - 7 -10.3 -13.5 +3.2
  Feb 17, 2024 92   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-75 10%     7 - 18 3 - 8 +1.9 +4.4 -2.9
  Feb 22, 2024 118   Liberty W 76-71 27%     8 - 18 4 - 8 +5.8 +7.1 -1.0
  Feb 24, 2024 182   Jacksonville St. L 75-77 44%     8 - 19 4 - 9 -6.0 +0.8 -6.7
  Mar 02, 2024 140   Western Kentucky L 80-85 34%    
  Mar 07, 2024 188   @ UTEP L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 09, 2024 276   @ New Mexico St. L 71-74 40%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 1.3 2.7 4.0 5th
6th 10.7 1.0 11.7 6th
7th 9.3 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 22.4 0.9 23.4 8th
9th 30.2 20.9 51.1 9th
Total 30.2 43.4 22.3 4.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 4.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.1
6-10 22.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 22.0
5-11 43.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.5 42.9
4-12 30.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 30.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 2.2% 16.0 2.2
Lose Out 30.2% 0.7% 16.0 0.7