New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#235
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#285
Pace71.7#124
Improvement+0.4#138

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#203
First Shot+2.5#108
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#338
Layup/Dunks-2.6#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement+1.4#44

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#258
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#320
Layups/Dunks+2.2#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#227
Freethrows-5.2#354
Improvement-1.0#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.6% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.1 15.7
.500 or above 3.2% 12.5% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.1% 33.7% 21.4%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 30.9% 21.0% 31.5%
First Four1.0% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round1.0% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 16
Quad 45 - 38 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 14   @ Kentucky L 46-86 3%     0 - 1 -21.5 -20.3 -1.4
  Nov 11, 2023 69   @ UC Irvine L 74-91 9%     0 - 2 -6.1 +4.5 -9.7
  Nov 18, 2023 282   Northern Colorado W 76-71 71%     1 - 2 -4.4 -9.2 +4.4
  Nov 21, 2023 166   Fresno St. L 76-81 OT 36%     1 - 3 -5.1 +0.3 -5.1
  Nov 22, 2023 119   Southern Illinois L 54-81 25%     1 - 4 -23.8 -10.4 -16.1
  Nov 26, 2023 155   @ Louisville L 84-90 OT 24%     1 - 5 -2.5 +4.1 -6.0
  Dec 02, 2023 49   @ New Mexico L 72-89 6%    
  Dec 15, 2023 49   New Mexico L 75-86 16%    
  Dec 19, 2023 97   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-81 14%    
  Dec 22, 2023 190   @ Tulsa L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 30, 2023 198   California Baptist W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 04, 2024 150   UTEP L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 11, 2024 218   @ Florida International L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 18, 2024 184   Western Kentucky W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 180   Middle Tennessee W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 25, 2024 133   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 27, 2024 104   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 01, 2024 42   Liberty L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 03, 2024 230   Jacksonville St. W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 10, 2024 150   @ UTEP L 68-76 26%    
  Feb 15, 2024 180   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 17, 2024 184   @ Western Kentucky L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 22, 2024 133   Sam Houston St. L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 24, 2024 104   Louisiana Tech L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 29, 2024 42   @ Liberty L 63-80 6%    
  Mar 02, 2024 230   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-71 38%    
  Mar 09, 2024 218   Florida International W 77-75 57%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.8 4.4 0.6 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 7.7 5.2 0.7 16.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.3 5.0 0.9 0.0 17.7 8th
9th 0.8 3.0 6.0 6.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 21.0 9th
Total 0.8 3.0 6.8 10.6 13.9 15.6 14.7 12.4 9.3 6.0 4.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 87.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 55.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1
12-4 35.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 8.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 23.1% 15.4% 7.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1%
13-3 0.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 0.7% 7.3% 7.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-5 1.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
10-6 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
9-7 6.0% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.7
8-8 9.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 9.1
7-9 12.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.2
6-10 14.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 14.6
5-11 15.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.5
4-12 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-13 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
2-14 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
1-15 3.0% 3.0
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%