Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#221
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#259
Pace60.1#350
Improvement-6.7#362

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#286
First Shot-1.9#231
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#289
Layup/Dunks-1.3#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows-1.8#280
Improvement-3.1#353

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#130
First Shot-0.4#191
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#48
Layups/Dunks-8.3#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#43
Freethrows+3.4#25
Improvement-3.6#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.4% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 15.5% 24.5% 10.1%
.500 or above in Conference 35.0% 41.2% 31.3%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.3% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 18.4% 14.6% 20.7%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round2.1% 2.9% 1.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 95 - 13
Quad 47 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 186   Northern Kentucky W 74-57 56%     1 - 0 +12.9 +3.5 +10.1
  Nov 09, 2023 106   Stephen F. Austin W 67-62 OT 36%     2 - 0 +6.1 -7.6 +13.5
  Nov 13, 2023 149   Western Carolina L 64-66 49%     2 - 1 -4.2 -6.0 +1.6
  Nov 21, 2023 132   UAB L 57-58 43%     2 - 2 -1.7 -7.8 +6.0
  Nov 24, 2023 137   Illinois-Chicago L 40-70 34%     2 - 3 -28.2 -25.0 -6.8
  Nov 25, 2023 129   Ohio L 68-80 32%     2 - 4 -9.6 -0.3 -10.4
  Nov 26, 2023 282   UMKC W 63-59 65%     3 - 4 -2.5 -3.8 +1.9
  Dec 02, 2023 243   Wofford L 64-74 OT 67%     3 - 5 -17.1 -16.6 -0.1
  Dec 05, 2023 111   Missouri St. L 61-64 38%    
  Dec 09, 2023 148   Belmont L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 19, 2023 59   @ St. Mary's L 51-65 10%    
  Dec 22, 2023 247   @ Southern Utah L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 30, 2023 172   @ Murray St. L 63-68 32%    
  Jan 11, 2024 102   Louisiana Tech L 59-63 35%    
  Jan 13, 2024 141   Sam Houston St. L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 18, 2024 175   @ UTEP L 59-64 33%    
  Jan 20, 2024 254   @ New Mexico St. L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 24, 2024 216   Jacksonville St. W 62-59 60%    
  Jan 27, 2024 228   Florida International W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 03, 2024 183   @ Western Kentucky L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 08, 2024 61   @ Liberty L 55-69 11%    
  Feb 10, 2024 228   @ Florida International L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 15, 2024 254   New Mexico St. W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 175   UTEP W 62-61 54%    
  Feb 21, 2024 216   @ Jacksonville St. L 59-62 40%    
  Feb 24, 2024 183   Western Kentucky W 67-65 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 141   @ Sam Houston St. L 60-67 28%    
  Mar 05, 2024 61   Liberty L 58-66 25%    
  Mar 09, 2024 102   @ Louisiana Tech L 56-66 18%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.3 1.2 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.3 4.2 0.8 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 7.3 4.7 0.9 0.0 14.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 7.1 5.5 1.0 0.0 15.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.4 5.9 1.0 0.0 15.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.2 5.0 4.7 0.9 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.3 9th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.2 9.7 13.5 15.6 15.5 12.1 9.9 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 91.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 77.3% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
12-4 46.3% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
11-5 14.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 26.1% 26.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 26.3% 26.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.7% 16.9% 16.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-4 1.8% 10.3% 10.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-5 3.8% 9.1% 9.1% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
10-6 6.5% 5.1% 5.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.2
9-7 9.9% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.4
8-8 12.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.1 0.5 11.6
7-9 15.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.2
6-10 15.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 15.4
5-11 13.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.4
4-12 9.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.6
3-13 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-14 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 97.3 0.0%