Southern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
95 Samford 38.9%   13   23 - 5 14 - 3 24 - 5 15 - 3 +6.0      +4.9 62 +1.1 140 79.5 11 +8.1 75 +7.7 1
132 Western Carolina 14.5%   18 - 9 10 - 7 18 - 10 10 - 8 +2.3      +1.2 145 +1.1 139 68.2 191 +3.0 125 +0.3 5
138 Furman 13.1%   14 - 13 10 - 7 15 - 13 11 - 7 +1.8      +2.6 111 -0.7 195 71.5 94 +0.1 159 +1.1 4
144 Chattanooga 11.5%   18 - 10 12 - 5 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.5      +3.2 98 -1.8 226 67.3 220 +1.9 136 +4.2 2
146 UNC Greensboro 11.0%   19 - 9 12 - 5 20 - 9 13 - 5 +1.3      +1.9 122 -0.5 184 63.4 318 +3.9 113 +4.1 3
187 Wofford 4.3%   13 - 14 9 - 8 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.6      +1.3 144 -2.9 261 64.7 288 -0.1 161 +0.3 6
198 East Tennessee St. 3.4%   13 - 15 7 - 10 13 - 16 7 - 11 -2.3      -2.3 241 0.0 170 66.1 252 -1.6 193 -3.4 7
230 Mercer 2.3%   12 - 15 7 - 10 12 - 16 7 - 11 -3.3      -1.8 228 -1.6 220 65.8 261 -3.3 229 -3.7 8
273 The Citadel 1.0%   8 - 19 3 - 14 8 - 20 3 - 15 -5.6      -2.8 254 -2.7 255 63.8 306 -7.2 292 -11.7 9
358 VMI 0.0%   1 - 26 1 - 16 1 - 27 1 - 17 -16.1      -11.6 359 -4.5 317 84.6 2 -19.8 360 -15.7 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 1.0 100.0
Western Carolina 4.5 54.8 45.2
Furman 4.1 90.9 9.1
Chattanooga 2.2 77.9 22.1
UNC Greensboro 2.3 72.3 27.7
Wofford 5.3 10.9 46.7 42.4
East Tennessee St. 7.1 88.6 11.4
Mercer 7.4 62.8 37.3
The Citadel 9.0 100.0
VMI 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 15 - 3 8.6 91.4
Western Carolina 10 - 8 57.9 42.1
Furman 11 - 7 21.8 78.2
Chattanooga 13 - 5 42.1 57.9
UNC Greensboro 13 - 5 47.7 52.3
Wofford 10 - 8 14.1 85.9
East Tennessee St. 7 - 11 52.3 47.7
Mercer 7 - 11 78.2 21.8
The Citadel 3 - 15 91.4 8.6
VMI 1 - 17 85.9 14.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 100.0% 100.0
Western Carolina
Furman
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro
Wofford
East Tennessee St.
Mercer
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 38.9% 38.9% 0.0% 13   0.0 6.9 26.0 5.9 0.1 61.1 0.0%
Western Carolina 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 8.2 4.4 0.3 0.0 85.5 0.0%
Furman 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 5.1 7.0 0.5 86.9 0.0%
Chattanooga 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.5 5.0 5.3 0.7 0.0 88.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.2 3.1 6.0 1.6 0.1 89.0 0.0%
Wofford 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 2.4 1.8 95.7 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.0 96.6 0.0%
Mercer 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 97.7 0.0%
The Citadel 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Samford 38.9% 0.0% 38.9% 8.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 14.5% 0.0% 14.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 13.1% 0.0% 13.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 4.3% 0.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 3.4% 1.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 2.3% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 97.7
2nd Round 12.2% 0.1 87.8 12.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0