Furman
Southern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#122
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#195
Pace75.4#43
Improvement-1.8#294

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#70
First Shot+4.7#62
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#205
Layup/Dunks+3.5#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#80
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement-1.6#305

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#216
First Shot-2.0#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#135
Layups/Dunks-4.9#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#83
Freethrows+0.5#155
Improvement-0.2#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 29.0% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 12.8 13.7
.500 or above 86.2% 95.0% 84.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 95.1% 91.6%
Conference Champion 29.5% 39.3% 27.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four1.1% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round22.8% 28.7% 21.7%
Second Round3.5% 6.0% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 2.1% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 412 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 148   Belmont W 99-76 69%     1 - 0 +20.9 +8.4 +9.2
  Nov 16, 2023 61   Liberty L 74-88 30%     1 - 1 -5.8 +1.3 -6.5
  Nov 17, 2023 300   @ Coastal Carolina W 89-80 76%     2 - 1 +4.4 +6.1 -2.3
  Nov 19, 2023 163   Wyoming L 71-78 61%     2 - 2 -6.9 -0.5 -6.5
  Nov 25, 2023 132   @ UAB L 86-92 41%     2 - 3 -0.7 +16.1 -16.8
  Nov 28, 2023 341   South Carolina St. W 86-78 94%     3 - 3 -7.0 -1.3 -6.3
  Dec 02, 2023 65   @ Princeton L 69-70 22%     3 - 4 +10.1 -2.7 +12.9
  Dec 04, 2023 46   @ Arkansas L 75-85 16%    
  Dec 14, 2023 89   @ Tulane L 84-90 30%    
  Dec 19, 2023 290   Presbyterian W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 03, 2024 103   @ UNC Greensboro L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 06, 2024 208   @ Chattanooga W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 10, 2024 264   The Citadel W 81-70 86%    
  Jan 13, 2024 244   East Tennessee St. W 81-71 82%    
  Jan 17, 2024 342   @ VMI W 87-75 86%    
  Jan 20, 2024 149   Western Carolina W 81-76 68%    
  Jan 24, 2024 142   Samford W 86-82 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 243   @ Wofford W 83-79 63%    
  Jan 31, 2024 264   @ The Citadel W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 04, 2024 103   UNC Greensboro W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 07, 2024 257   @ Mercer W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 10, 2024 244   @ East Tennessee St. W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 14, 2024 342   VMI W 90-72 95%    
  Feb 18, 2024 208   Chattanooga W 82-74 75%    
  Feb 21, 2024 142   @ Samford L 83-85 44%    
  Feb 24, 2024 243   Wofford W 86-76 81%    
  Feb 28, 2024 149   @ Western Carolina L 78-79 48%    
  Mar 02, 2024 257   Mercer W 79-68 83%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.5 7.3 8.2 6.2 2.8 0.5 29.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.1 8.7 5.8 1.8 0.3 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.3 6.7 3.3 0.5 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.4 3.9 1.5 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.5 3.7 6.8 9.7 11.6 15.2 15.5 13.7 10.0 6.5 2.8 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.1
16-2 95.8% 6.2    5.5 0.7
15-3 82.0% 8.2    6.0 2.0 0.2
14-4 53.7% 7.3    4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.5% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1
12-6 5.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.5% 29.5 19.9 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 71.8% 68.3% 3.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.1%
17-1 2.8% 53.9% 53.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3
16-2 6.5% 48.9% 48.8% 0.2% 12.5 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.3 0.4%
15-3 10.0% 36.4% 36.4% 13.0 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.0 6.3
14-4 13.7% 32.7% 32.7% 13.3 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.2
13-5 15.5% 24.7% 24.7% 13.7 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 11.7
12-6 15.2% 17.1% 17.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 12.6
11-7 11.6% 14.1% 14.1% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 10.0
10-8 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 8.7
9-9 6.8% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.2
8-10 3.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.3 3.3
7-11 2.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 0.9% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.1 0.9
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 23.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.9 7.1 5.9 3.6 1.8 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 96.3% 7.3 7.4 22.2 25.9 3.7 18.5 18.5