Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#149
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#73
Pace68.6#202
Improvement-2.2#309

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot+2.0#118
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#189
Layup/Dunks+1.8#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#237
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement-2.1#325

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-1.7#231
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#121
Layups/Dunks-0.2#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows+1.7#89
Improvement-0.1#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 14.9% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 92.3% 96.3% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 84.5% 76.9%
Conference Champion 15.5% 19.0% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 1.3%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round12.3% 14.9% 9.8%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Away) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 57 - 7
Quad 412 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 153   @ Notre Dame W 71-61 40%     1 - 0 +13.4 +5.6 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2023 221   @ Middle Tennessee W 66-64 51%     2 - 0 +2.6 +1.8 +0.9
  Nov 18, 2023 138   McNeese St. W 76-74 58%     3 - 0 +0.7 +9.5 -8.5
  Nov 26, 2023 222   North Alabama W 81-63 73%     4 - 0 +12.4 +7.3 +5.4
  Nov 28, 2023 309   @ Tennessee Tech W 69-65 72%     5 - 0 -1.2 -5.8 +4.7
  Dec 02, 2023 177   @ Gardner-Webb L 77-82 44%     5 - 1 -2.6 +3.1 -5.4
  Dec 05, 2023 205   @ High Point L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 09, 2023 209   UNC Asheville W 77-71 71%    
  Dec 16, 2023 271   @ South Carolina Upstate W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 19, 2023 178   @ Vanderbilt L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 03, 2024 264   @ The Citadel W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 243   Wofford W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 10, 2024 244   @ East Tennessee St. W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 257   @ Mercer W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 17, 2024 142   Samford W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 20, 2024 122   @ Furman L 76-81 32%    
  Jan 24, 2024 103   UNC Greensboro L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 342   VMI W 84-68 93%    
  Jan 31, 2024 208   Chattanooga W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 243   @ Wofford W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 07, 2024 264   The Citadel W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 10, 2024 257   Mercer W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 14, 2024 142   @ Samford L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 17, 2024 244   East Tennessee St. W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 21, 2024 103   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 24, 2024 342   @ VMI W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 28, 2024 122   Furman W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 208   @ Chattanooga L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.5 4.2 2.6 1.1 0.1 15.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.7 6.3 3.6 1.2 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.9 6.4 2.5 0.4 17.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 6.4 5.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.0 4.1 0.8 0.1 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.1 8.0 10.8 13.5 13.8 13.2 11.4 8.6 5.5 2.7 1.1 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.6% 2.6    2.4 0.3
15-3 77.2% 4.2    3.1 1.1 0.1
14-4 52.8% 4.5    2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.9% 2.4    0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.8 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 64.8% 42.3% 22.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.0%
17-1 1.1% 50.1% 48.9% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.4%
16-2 2.7% 37.6% 37.2% 0.4% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.7%
15-3 5.5% 27.9% 27.9% 12.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.9
14-4 8.6% 22.4% 22.4% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 6.7
13-5 11.4% 18.7% 18.7% 13.4 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 9.2
12-6 13.2% 12.7% 12.7% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.5
11-7 13.8% 10.0% 10.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 12.4
10-8 13.5% 6.6% 6.6% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 12.6
9-9 10.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.1
8-10 8.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.7
7-11 5.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.0
6-12 3.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.2
5-13 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.4% 12.4% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.8 3.7 1.8 0.6 87.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 76.0% 9.5 8.0 24.0 24.0 20.0