Chattanooga
Southern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#183
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#136
Pace69.7#169
Improvement-0.9#275

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#186
First Shot-1.3#210
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#131
Layup/Dunks-6.1#350
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#52
Freethrows+2.3#54
Improvement-0.2#198

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#190
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#255
Layups/Dunks+0.0#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#337
Freethrows+2.3#53
Improvement-0.8#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 9.9% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 72.4% 85.6% 65.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.6% 75.6% 63.4%
Conference Champion 8.4% 11.6% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.7% 3.6%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round7.4% 9.7% 6.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 412 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 155   @ Louisville W 81-71 33%     1 - 0 +13.5 +3.3 +9.7
  Nov 14, 2023 210   Bellarmine W 72-64 66%     2 - 0 +2.7 +0.0 +3.1
  Nov 19, 2023 304   Tennessee Tech W 68-63 82%     3 - 0 -5.8 -4.4 -0.9
  Nov 24, 2023 200   Evansville L 77-85 OT 64%     3 - 1 -12.8 -4.2 -7.8
  Nov 26, 2023 340   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-56 89%     4 - 1 +1.2 -4.1 +6.1
  Nov 29, 2023 168   @ Lipscomb L 74-78 35%    
  Dec 03, 2023 209   @ Morehead St. L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 16, 2023 350   @ Alabama A&M W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 19, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 22, 2023 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-78 55%    
  Dec 30, 2023 21   @ Auburn L 65-83 5%    
  Jan 03, 2024 161   @ Samford L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 06, 2024 115   Furman L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 11, 2024 332   VMI W 82-69 87%    
  Jan 13, 2024 101   UNC Greensboro L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 17, 2024 257   @ Mercer W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 20, 2024 241   @ East Tennessee St. W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 24, 2024 266   @ Wofford W 77-75 55%    
  Jan 27, 2024 300   The Citadel W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 31, 2024 144   @ Western Carolina L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 03, 2024 161   Samford W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 08, 2024 332   @ VMI W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 10, 2024 101   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-74 23%    
  Feb 14, 2024 241   East Tennessee St. W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 18, 2024 115   @ Furman L 75-83 25%    
  Feb 21, 2024 266   Wofford W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 300   @ The Citadel W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 28, 2024 257   Mercer W 71-64 73%    
  Mar 02, 2024 144   Western Carolina W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.0 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.1 5.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.8 4.7 1.1 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.3 0.2 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.7 5.9 8.4 11.3 12.3 13.5 12.5 10.9 8.5 5.3 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.0% 1.3    1.1 0.2
15-3 79.8% 2.3    1.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 45.8% 2.4    1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.2% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 75.0% 68.8% 6.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0%
17-1 0.4% 41.7% 41.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.3% 38.0% 37.7% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.5%
15-3 2.9% 25.0% 25.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.3% 20.1% 20.1% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 4.2
13-5 8.5% 14.5% 14.5% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 7.2
12-6 10.9% 10.7% 10.7% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.7
11-7 12.5% 7.9% 7.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.5
10-8 13.5% 5.3% 5.3% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.8
9-9 12.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.8
8-10 11.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.9
7-11 8.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-13 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.6 1.7 0.8 92.4 0.0%