Mercer
Southern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#257
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#262
Pace64.2#311
Improvement+0.7#129

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#278
First Shot-0.5#192
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#332
Layup/Dunks-0.3#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows-2.8#314
Improvement+1.0#92

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#219
First Shot-4.7#318
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#15
Layups/Dunks-0.2#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows-5.8#359
Improvement-0.3#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.4
.500 or above 28.0% 36.9% 17.6%
.500 or above in Conference 34.9% 39.8% 29.2%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.3% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 8.7% 12.5%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round1.7% 2.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 338   @ Chicago St. W 66-61 64%     1 - 0 -3.8 -5.9 +2.4
  Nov 14, 2023 198   @ Morehead St. L 66-74 27%     1 - 1 -6.6 -4.5 -2.0
  Nov 17, 2023 15   @ Alabama L 67-98 2%     1 - 2 -12.6 -4.5 -6.4
  Nov 24, 2023 242   Tennessee St. W 60-59 46%     2 - 2 -2.9 -11.8 +8.9
  Nov 25, 2023 302   Western Michigan L 66-72 60%     2 - 3 -13.7 -3.5 -10.8
  Dec 01, 2023 88   @ Georgia L 69-80 11%     2 - 4 -2.3 +3.8 -6.4
  Dec 06, 2023 231   South Alabama W 66-65 54%    
  Dec 09, 2023 204   Georgia St. L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 16, 2023 220   Florida Gulf Coast W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 19, 2023 255   Queens W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 03, 2024 244   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 06, 2024 342   @ VMI W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 10, 2024 243   Wofford W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 149   Western Carolina L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 17, 2024 208   Chattanooga L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 20, 2024 142   @ Samford L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 24, 2024 264   @ The Citadel L 65-67 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 103   @ UNC Greensboro L 59-72 13%    
  Jan 31, 2024 244   East Tennessee St. W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 03, 2024 342   VMI W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 07, 2024 122   Furman L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 10, 2024 149   @ Western Carolina L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 14, 2024 243   Wofford W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 17, 2024 142   Samford L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 21, 2024 264   The Citadel W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 24, 2024 103   UNC Greensboro L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 28, 2024 208   @ Chattanooga L 65-71 29%    
  Mar 02, 2024 122   @ Furman L 68-79 17%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.9 6.6 3.7 0.5 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 4.3 6.8 3.2 0.4 16.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.9 5.0 2.0 0.3 15.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.2 7.6 10.6 13.3 13.7 13.0 11.4 9.7 6.1 4.0 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 87.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-4 56.7% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 15.7% 15.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.1% 8.7% 8.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.0% 12.0% 12.0% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-6 4.0% 8.3% 8.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.7
11-7 6.1% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.9
10-8 9.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.4
9-9 11.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.2
8-10 13.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.9
7-11 13.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.6
6-12 13.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-14 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 4.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 98.0 0.0%